Variability and Change
Investigating variability in the Earth system and its implications for past and future change.
Conditional frequencies of compound extremes under El Nino conditions. Figure by Ashley Dwyer and adapted from Dwyer et al. (2026).
Telling change apart from noise is a core problem in climate science. We work to separate internal variability from forced change across the historical record and into the future, with particular attention to extremes — the rare events that matter most and that we have the least data to constrain.
Some examples include:
- Large ensembles and emulators to characterize the frequency and drivers of compound extremes
- Internal variability vs. forced response: detection and attribution