publications

2026

1. Do AI Forecast Ensembles Sample the Correct Conditional Distribution?

   Howard, Lucas, and Elizabeth A. Barnes. 2026. · Submitted / Preprint

   Preprint Bib Cite

   @article{howard2026conditionaldist,
     title = {Do AI Forecast Ensembles Sample the Correct Conditional Distribution?},
     author = {Howard, Lucas and Barnes, Elizabeth A.},
     journal = {},
     year = {2026},
     preprint = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.08954},
   }

2. Precipitation Diffusion Downscaling and Application to Out-of-Distribution Simulations with and without Stratospheric Aerosol Injection

   Dong, Cameron, James W. Hurrell, and Elizabeth A. Barnes. 2026. Machine Learning: Earth · Submitted / Preprint

   Preprint Bib Cite

   @article{dong2026downscaling,
     title = {Precipitation Diffusion Downscaling and Application to Out-of-Distribution Simulations with and without Stratospheric Aerosol Injection},
     author = {Dong, Cameron and Hurrell, James W. and Barnes, Elizabeth A.},
     journal = {Machine Learning: Earth},
     year = {2026},
     preprint = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.23776},
   }

3. Improving Annual Predictability of Mosquito Climate Suitability

   Dwyer, Ashley E., James W. Hurrell, and Elizabeth A. Barnes. 2026. GeoHealth · Submitted / Preprint

   Preprint Bib Cite

   @article{dwyer2026mosquito,
     title = {Improving Annual Predictability of Mosquito Climate Suitability},
     author = {Dwyer, Ashley E. and Hurrell, James W. and Barnes, Elizabeth A.},
     journal = {GeoHealth},
     year = {2026},
     preprint = {https://essopenarchive.org/doi/full/10.22541/essoar.15004157/v1},
   }

4. Watch an AI Weather Model Learn (and Unlearn) Tropical Cyclones

   Baiman, Rebecca, Ankur Mahesh, and Elizabeth A. Barnes. 2026. Geophysical Research Letters · Submitted / Preprint

   Preprint Bib Cite

   @article{baiman2026unlearn,
     title = {Watch an AI Weather Model Learn (and Unlearn) Tropical Cyclones},
     author = {Baiman, Rebecca and Mahesh, Ankur and Barnes, Elizabeth A.},
     journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
     year = {2026},
     preprint = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.20541},
   }

5. Deep-Learning Climate Emulator ACE2 Reveals a Global Decrease in Tropical Cyclone Frequency in the 15th Century under an El Niño-like Sea Surface Temperature Pattern

   Chien, Mu-Ting, Wenchang Yang, Eric D. Maloney, Gabriel Vecchi, and Elizabeth A. Barnes. 2026. · Submitted / Preprint

   Preprint Bib Cite

   @article{chien2026century,
     title = {Deep-Learning Climate Emulator ACE2 Reveals a Global Decrease in Tropical Cyclone Frequency in the 15th Century under an El Ni{\~n}o-like Sea Surface Temperature Pattern},
     author = {Chien, Mu-Ting and Yang, Wenchang and Maloney, Eric D. and Vecchi, Gabriel and Barnes, Elizabeth A.},
     journal = {},
     year = {2026},
     preprint = {https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-10358405/v1},
   }

6. On the Seasonal Predictability of the 2020 North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Season

   Levin, Emma Lilly, Mu-Ting Chien, Elizabeth A. Barnes, and 3 more authors. 2026. · Submitted / Preprint

   Preprint Bib Cite

   @article{levin2026predictability,
     title = {On the Seasonal Predictability of the 2020 North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Season},
     author = {Levin, Emma Lilly and Chien, Mu-Ting and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and He, Haozhe and Vecchi, Gabriel and Yang, Wenchang},
     journal = {},
     year = {2026},
     preprint = {https://eartharxiv.org/repository/view/12018/},
   }

7. Global Emissions Since the Paris Agreement Have Intensified Europe’s Recent Heatwaves

   Trok, Jared T., Elizabeth A. Barnes, Emily M. Gordon, Frances V. Davenport, and Noah S. Diffenbaugh. 2026. · Submitted / Preprint

   Preprint Bib Cite

   @article{trok2026heatwaves,
     title = {Global Emissions Since the Paris Agreement Have Intensified Europe's Recent Heatwaves},
     author = {Trok, Jared T. and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Gordon, Emily M. and Davenport, Frances V. and Diffenbaugh, Noah S.},
     year = {2026},
     journal = {},
     preprint = {https://essopenarchive.org/doi/full/10.22541/essoar.15005315/v1},
   }

8. Digestible Pieces: Comparing Three Options for Partitioning the Northeast Pacific Coast for S2S Sea Surface Height Prediction

   Thapa, Laura, Marybeth Arcodia, and Elizabeth A. Barnes. 2026. · Submitted / Preprint

   Preprint Bib Cite

   @article{thapa2025digestible,
     title = {Digestible Pieces: Comparing Three Options for Partitioning the Northeast Pacific Coast for S2S Sea Surface Height Prediction},
     author = {Thapa, Laura and Arcodia, Marybeth and Barnes, Elizabeth A.},
     journal = {},
     year = {2026},
     preprint = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.18133},
   }

9. How Does an AI Weather Model Learn to Forecast Extreme Weather?

   Baiman, Rebecca, Elizabeth A. Barnes, and Ankur Mahesh. 2026. · Submitted / Preprint

   Preprint Bib Cite

   @article{baiman2025extreme,
     title = {How Does an AI Weather Model Learn to Forecast Extreme Weather?},
     author = {Baiman, Rebecca and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Mahesh, Ankur},
     journal = {},
     year = {2026},
     preprint = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.10639},
   }

10. Exploring the Influence of Internal Climate Variability and Forced Change on Arctic Greening

    Hueholt, Daniel M., Elizabeth A. Barnes, James W. Hurrell, Danica Lombardozzi, and Ariel L. Morrison. 2026. · Submitted / Preprint

    Preprint Bib Cite

    @article{hueholt2025greening,
      title = {Exploring the Influence of Internal Climate Variability and Forced Change on Arctic Greening},
      author = {Hueholt, Daniel M. and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Hurrell, James W. and Lombardozzi, Danica and Morrison, Ariel L.},
      year = {2026},
      preprint = {https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5292592},
    }

11. Turning Up the Heat: Assessing 2-m Temperature Forecast Errors in AI Weather Prediction Models During Heat Waves

    Ennis, Kelsey E., Elizabeth A. Barnes, Marybeth C. Arcodia, Martin A. Fernandez, and Eric D. Maloney. 2026. · Submitted / Preprint

    Preprint Bib Cite

    @article{ennis2025heat,
      title = {Turning Up the Heat: Assessing 2-m Temperature Forecast Errors in AI Weather Prediction Models During Heat Waves},
      author = {Ennis, Kelsey E. and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Arcodia, Marybeth C. and Fernandez, Martin A. and Maloney, Eric D.},
      journal = {},
      year = {2026},
      preprint = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2504.21195},
    }

12. Multi-Year-to-Decadal Temperature Prediction Using a Machine Learning Model-Analog Framework

    Fernandez, Martin A., and Elizabeth A. Barnes. 2026. · Submitted / Preprint

    Preprint Bib Cite

    @article{fernandez2025modelanalog,
      title = {Multi-Year-to-Decadal Temperature Prediction Using a Machine Learning Model-Analog Framework},
      author = {Fernandez, Martin A. and Barnes, Elizabeth A.},
      journal = {},
      year = {2026},
      preprint = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2502.17583},
    }

13. Identifying the Timing of Regional Summertime Minimum Temperature Threshold Crossings and the Potential Subsequent Climate Evolutions

    Arcodia, Marybeth C., and Elizabeth A. Barnes. 2026. Earth’s Future

    DOI Bib Cite

    @article{arcodia2025timing,
      title = {Identifying the Timing of Regional Summertime Minimum Temperature Threshold Crossings and the Potential Subsequent Climate Evolutions},
      author = {Arcodia, Marybeth C. and Barnes, Elizabeth A.},
      journal = {Earth's Future},
      volume = {14},
      number = {7},
      year = {2026},
      doi = {10.1029/2026EF008520},
    }

14. Am I Confused or Is This Confusing?: Deep Ensembles for ENSO Uncertainty Quantification

    McAfee, Devin M., and Elizabeth A. Barnes. 2026. Machine Learning: Earth

    DOI Bib Cite

    @article{mcafee2025confused,
      title = {Am I Confused or Is This Confusing?: Deep Ensembles for ENSO Uncertainty Quantification},
      author = {McAfee, Devin M. and Barnes, Elizabeth A.},
      journal = {Machine Learning: Earth},
      year = {2026},
      doi = {10.1088/3049-4753/ae4fc0},
    }

15. Forecasting the Future with Yesterday’s Climate: Temperature Bias in AI Weather and Climate Models

    Landsberg, Jacob B., and Elizabeth A. Barnes. 2026. Geophysical Research Letters

    DOI Bib Cite

    @article{landsberg2026forecasting,
      title = {Forecasting the Future with Yesterday's Climate: Temperature Bias in AI Weather and Climate Models},
      author = {Landsberg, Jacob B. and Barnes, Elizabeth A.},
      journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
      volume = {53},
      number = {6},
      year = {2026},
      doi = {10.1029/2025GL119740},
    }

16. AI-Informed Model-Analogs for Understanding Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Jet Stream and North American Temperature Predictability

    Landsberg, Jacob B., Matthew Newman, and Elizabeth A. Barnes. 2026. Machine Learning: Earth

    DOI Bib Cite

    @article{landsberg2026analogs,
      title = {AI-Informed Model-Analogs for Understanding Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Jet Stream and North American Temperature Predictability},
      author = {Landsberg, Jacob B. and Newman, Matthew and Barnes, Elizabeth A.},
      journal = {Machine Learning: Earth},
      year = {2026},
      doi = {10.1088/3049-4753/ae4805},
    }

17. Distinguishing between the Short-Term Climate Responses to Different Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Latitudes with Explainable Artificial Intelligence

    Dong, Cameron, Elizabeth A. Barnes, and Charlotte Connolly. 2026. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres

    DOI Bib Cite

    @article{dong2026distinguishing,
      title = {Distinguishing between the Short-Term Climate Responses to Different Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Latitudes with Explainable Artificial Intelligence},
      author = {Dong, Cameron and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Connolly, Charlotte},
      journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
      year = {2026},
      doi = {10.22541/essoar.175977359.93285815/v1},
    }

18. The Role of Internal Variability and External Forcing on the Emergence of Compound Extremes in the CESM2 Large Ensemble

    Dwyer, Ashley E., Elizabeth A. Barnes, and James W. Hurrell. 2026. Frontiers in Climate

    DOI Bib Cite

    @article{dwyer2026compound,
      title = {The Role of Internal Variability and External Forcing on the Emergence of Compound Extremes in the CESM2 Large Ensemble},
      author = {Dwyer, Ashley E. and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Hurrell, James W.},
      journal = {Frontiers in Climate},
      year = {2026},
      doi = {10.3389/fclim.2026.1739394},
    }

19. Modulation of Tropical Cyclogenesis by the Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves: Insights from Data-driven Climate Emulator ACE2

    Chien, Mu-Ting, Elizabeth A. Barnes, and Eric D. Maloney. 2026. Geophysical Research Letters

    DOI Bib Cite

    @article{chien2026modulation,
      title = {Modulation of Tropical Cyclogenesis by the Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves: Insights from Data-driven Climate Emulator ACE2},
      author = {Chien, Mu-Ting and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Maloney, Eric D.},
      journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
      year = {2026},
      doi = {10.1029/2025GL117387},
    }

2025

1. Observation-Based Estimate of Earth’s Effective Radiative Forcing

   Van Loon, Senne, Maria Rugenstein, and Elizabeth A. Barnes. 2025. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

   DOI Bib Cite

   @article{vanloon2025forcing,
     title = {Observation-Based Estimate of Earth's Effective Radiative Forcing},
     author = {Van Loon, Senne and Rugenstein, Maria and Barnes, Elizabeth A.},
     journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
     volume = {122},
     number = {24},
     pages = {e2425445122},
     year = {2025},
     doi = {10.1073/pnas.2425445122},
   }

2. Assessing MJO Tropical-Extratropical Teleconnections in Deep Learning Weather Prediction Models

   Diao, ChenRui, and Elizabeth A. Barnes. 2025.

   non-refereed

   Preprint Bib Cite

   @article{diao2025dlwp,
     title = {Assessing MJO Tropical-Extratropical Teleconnections in Deep Learning Weather Prediction Models},
     author = {Diao, ChenRui and Barnes, Elizabeth A.},
     year = {2025},
     note = {non-refereed},
     hide_status = {true},
     preprint = {https://essopenarchive.org/doi/full/10.22541/essoar.174759219.91708232/v1},
   }

3. An Explainable Machine Learning Prediction System for Early-Warning of Heat Stress on Florida’s Coral Reef

   Arcodia, Marybeth C., Richard Karp, and Elizabeth A. Barnes. 2025. Environmental Research Communications

   DOI Bib Cite

   @article{arcodia2025coral,
     title = {An Explainable Machine Learning Prediction System for Early-Warning of Heat Stress on Florida's Coral Reef},
     author = {Arcodia, Marybeth C. and Karp, Richard and Barnes, Elizabeth A.},
     journal = {Environmental Research Communications},
     year = {2025},
     doi = {10.1088/2515-7620/ae2570},
   }

4. Uncertainty-permitting Machine Learning Reveals Sources of Dynamic Sea Level Predictability across Daily-to-Seasonal Timescales

   Brettin, Andrew, Laure Zanna, and Elizabeth A. Barnes. 2025. Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems

   DOI Bib Cite

   @article{brettin2025uncertainty,
     title = {Uncertainty-permitting Machine Learning Reveals Sources of Dynamic Sea Level Predictability across Daily-to-Seasonal Timescales},
     author = {Brettin, Andrew and Zanna, Laure and Barnes, Elizabeth A.},
     journal = {Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems},
     year = {2025},
     doi = {10.1175/AIES-D-25-0014.1},
   }

5. Uncovering Patterns of Converging Human-Induced Pressure on Global Lands

   Orihuela-Pinto, Bryam, Patrick W. Keys, Frances V. Davenport, and Elizabeth A. Barnes. 2025. Machine Learning: Earth

   DOI Bib Cite

   @article{orihuelapinto2025converging,
     title = {Uncovering Patterns of Converging Human-Induced Pressure on Global Lands},
     author = {Orihuela-Pinto, Bryam and Keys, Patrick W. and Davenport, Frances V. and Barnes, Elizabeth A.},
     journal = {Machine Learning: Earth},
     volume = {1},
     number = {1},
     pages = {01LT03},
     year = {2025},
     doi = {10.1088/3049-4753/ae2278},
   }

6. Application of an Interpretable Prototypical-Part Network to Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Climate Prediction over North America

   Gordillo, Nicolas J., and Elizabeth A. Barnes. 2025. Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems

   DOI Bib Cite

   @article{gordillo2025prototypical,
     title = {Application of an Interpretable Prototypical-Part Network to Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Climate Prediction over North America},
     author = {Gordillo, Nicolas J. and Barnes, Elizabeth A.},
     journal = {Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems},
     year = {2025},
     doi = {10.1175/AIES-D-24-0021.1},
   }

7. Southern Hemisphere Surface Warming Drives Southwestern U.S. Precipitation According to AI-informed Climate Model Simulations

   Alessi, Marc J., Charlotte J. Connolly, Elizabeth A. Barnes, and 1 more author. 2025. Journal of Climate

   DOI Bib Cite

   @article{alessi2025precipitation,
     title = {Southern Hemisphere Surface Warming Drives Southwestern U.S. Precipitation According to AI-informed Climate Model Simulations},
     author = {Alessi, Marc J. and Connolly, Charlotte J. and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Rugenstein, Maria},
     journal = {Journal of Climate},
     year = {2025},
     doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-25-0176.1},
   }

8. Reanalysis-based Global Radiative Response to Sea Surface Temperature Patterns: Evaluating the Ai2 Climate Emulator

   Van Loon, Senne, Maria Rugenstein, and Elizabeth A. Barnes. 2025. Geophysical Research Letters

   DOI Bib Cite

   @article{vanloon2025reanalysis,
     title = {Reanalysis-based Global Radiative Response to Sea Surface Temperature Patterns: Evaluating the Ai2 Climate Emulator},
     author = {Van Loon, Senne and Rugenstein, Maria and Barnes, Elizabeth A.},
     journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
     year = {2025},
     doi = {10.1029/2025GL115432},
   }

9. Convolutional Neural Networks Trained on Internal Variability Predict Radiation under Strong Climate Change by Learning the Pattern Effect

   Rugenstein, Maria, Senne Van Loon, and Elizabeth A. Barnes. 2025. Geophysical Research Letters

   DOI Bib Cite

   @article{rugenstein2025cnn,
     title = {Convolutional Neural Networks Trained on Internal Variability Predict Radiation under Strong Climate Change by Learning the Pattern Effect},
     author = {Rugenstein, Maria and Van Loon, Senne and Barnes, Elizabeth A.},
     journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
     year = {2025},
     doi = {10.1029/2024GL109581},
   }

10. Recommendations for Comprehensive and Independent Evaluation of Machine Learning-based Earth System Models

    Ullrich, Paul A., Elizabeth A. Barnes, William D. Collins, and 4 more authors. 2025. Journal of Geophysical Research: Machine Learning and Computation

    DOI Bib Cite

    @article{ullrich2025evaluation,
      title = {Recommendations for Comprehensive and Independent Evaluation of Machine Learning-based Earth System Models},
      author = {Ullrich, Paul A. and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Collins, William D. and Dagon, Katherine and Duan, Shixuan and Elms, Joshua and Lee, Jiwoo},
      journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Machine Learning and Computation},
      volume = {2},
      number = {1},
      pages = {e2024JH000496},
      year = {2025},
      doi = {10.1029/2024JH000496},
    }

11. Macroclimate Growing Conditions for Luxury Crops under Stratospheric Aerosol Injection

    Morrison, Ariel L., Elizabeth A. Barnes, James W. Hurrell, and Daniel M. Hueholt. 2025. Environmental Research Letters

    DOI Bib Cite

    @article{morrison2025luxury,
      title = {Macroclimate Growing Conditions for Luxury Crops under Stratospheric Aerosol Injection},
      author = {Morrison, Ariel L. and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Hurrell, James W. and Hueholt, Daniel M.},
      journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
      year = {2025},
      doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/adfbff},
    }

12. Modulation of Tropical Cyclogenesis on Subseasonal-to-Interannual Timescales in the Deep-Learning Climate Emulator ACE2

    Chien, Mu-Ting, Elizabeth A. Barnes, and Eric D. Maloney. 2025. Machine Learning: Earth

    DOI Bib Cite

    @article{chien2025tropical,
      title = {Modulation of Tropical Cyclogenesis on Subseasonal-to-Interannual Timescales in the Deep-Learning Climate Emulator ACE2},
      author = {Chien, Mu-Ting and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Maloney, Eric D.},
      journal = {Machine Learning: Earth},
      year = {2025},
      doi = {10.1088/3049-4753/adfd61},
    }

13. A Model Study Exploring the Decision Loop between Unilateral Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Scenario Design and Earth System Simulations

    Diao, ChenRui, Patrick Keys, Curtis Bell, Elizabeth A. Barnes, and James W. Hurrell. 2025. Earth’s Future

    DOI Bib Cite

    @article{diao2025decisionloop,
      title = {A Model Study Exploring the Decision Loop between Unilateral Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Scenario Design and Earth System Simulations},
      author = {Diao, ChenRui and Keys, Patrick and Bell, Curtis and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Hurrell, James W.},
      journal = {Earth's Future},
      year = {2025},
      doi = {10.1029/2024EF005455},
    }

14. A Regimes-based Approach to Identifying Seasonal State-dependent Prediction Skill

    Shackelford, Kyle, Charlotte DeMott, Peter Jan Leeuwen, and Elizabeth A. Barnes. 2025. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres

    DOI Bib Cite

    @article{shackelford2025regimes,
      title = {A Regimes-based Approach to Identifying Seasonal State-dependent Prediction Skill},
      author = {Shackelford, Kyle and DeMott, Charlotte and van Leeuwen, Peter Jan and Barnes, Elizabeth A.},
      journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
      year = {2025},
      doi = {10.1029/2024JD042917},
    }

15. Predicting Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Errors using a Probabilistic Neural Network

    Fernandez, Martin, Elizabeth A. Barnes, Randal J. Barnes, Mark DeMaria, Marie McGraw, Galina Chirokova, and Lixin Lu. 2025. Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems

    DOI Bib Cite

    @article{fernandez2025track,
      title = {Predicting Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Errors using a Probabilistic Neural Network},
      author = {Fernandez, Martin and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Barnes, Randal J. and DeMaria, Mark and McGraw, Marie and Chirokova, Galina and Lu, Lixin},
      journal = {Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems},
      year = {2025},
      doi = {10.1175/AIES-D-24-0066.1},
    }

16. Sea Surface Salinity Provides Subseasonal Predictability for Forecasts of Opportunity of U.S. Summertime Precipitation

    Arcodia, Marybeth C., Elizabeth A. Barnes, Paul J. Durack, and 2 more authors. 2025. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres

    DOI Bib Cite

    @article{arcodia2025salinity,
      title = {Sea Surface Salinity Provides Subseasonal Predictability for Forecasts of Opportunity of U.S. Summertime Precipitation},
      author = {Arcodia, Marybeth C. and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Durack, Paul J. and Keys, Patrick W. and Rocha, Juliette},
      journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
      year = {2025},
      doi = {10.1029/2024JD042402},
    }

17. Exposure to Compound Climate Hazards Transmitted via Global Agricultural Trade Networks

    Keys, Patrick, Elizabeth A. Barnes, Noah Diffenbaugh, and 3 more authors. 2025. Environmental Research Letters

    DOI Bib Cite

    @article{keys2025trade,
      title = {Exposure to Compound Climate Hazards Transmitted via Global Agricultural Trade Networks},
      author = {Keys, Patrick and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Diffenbaugh, Noah and Hertel, Tom and Baldos, Uris and Hedlund, Johanna},
      journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
      year = {2025},
      doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/adb86a},
    }

18. Learning Propagators for Sea Surface Height Forecasts Using Koopman Autoencoders

    Brettin, Andrew, Laure Zanna, and Elizabeth A. Barnes. 2025. Geophysical Research Letters

    DOI Bib Cite

    @article{brettin2025koopman,
      title = {Learning Propagators for Sea Surface Height Forecasts Using Koopman Autoencoders},
      author = {Brettin, Andrew and Zanna, Laure and Barnes, Elizabeth A.},
      journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
      year = {2025},
      doi = {10.1029/2024GL112835},
    }

19. Influence of ENSO on Stratospheric Sulfur Dioxide Injection in the CESM2 ARISE-SAI-1.5 Simulations

    Diao, ChenRui, Elizabeth A. Barnes, and James W. Hurrell. 2025. ESS Open Archive

    non-refereed

    Preprint Bib Cite

    @article{diao2025enso,
      title = {Influence of ENSO on Stratospheric Sulfur Dioxide Injection in the CESM2 ARISE-SAI-1.5 Simulations},
      author = {Diao, ChenRui and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Hurrell, James W.},
      journal = {ESS Open Archive},
      note = {non-refereed},
      year = {2025},
      preprint = {https://essopenarchive.org/doi/full/10.22541/essoar.168748397.70100642/v1},
      hide_status = {true},
    }

2024

1. Machine Learning-Based Extreme Event Attribution

   Trok, Jared, Elizabeth A. Barnes, Frances Davenport, and 1 more author. 2024. Science Advances

   DOI Bib Cite

   @article{trok2024attribution,
     title = {Machine Learning-Based Extreme Event Attribution},
     author = {Trok, Jared and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Davenport, Frances and Diffenbaugh, Noah},
     journal = {Science Advances},
     year = {2024},
     doi = {10.1126/sciadv.adl3242},
   }

2. Pushing the Frontiers in Climate Modeling and Analysis with Machine Learning

   Eyring, Veronika, William D. Collins, Pierre Gentine, Elizabeth A. Barnes, Marcelo Barreiro, Tom Beucler, Marc Bocquet, Christopher S. Bretherton, Hannah M. Christensen, David John Gagne, David Hall, Dorit Hammerling, Stephan Hoyer, Fernando Iglesias-Suarez, Ignacio Lopez-Gomez, Marie C. McGraw, Gerald A. Meehl, Maria J. Molina, Claire Monteleoni, Juliane Mueller, Michael S. Pritchard, David Rolnick, Jakob Runge, Philip Stier, Oliver Watt-Meyer, Katja Weigel, Rose Yu, and Laure Zanna. 2024. Nature Climate Change

   DOI Bib Cite

   @article{eyring2024frontiers,
     title = {Pushing the Frontiers in Climate Modeling and Analysis with Machine Learning},
     author = {Eyring, Veronika and Collins, William D. and Gentine, Pierre and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Barreiro, Marcelo and Beucler, Tom and Bocquet, Marc and Bretherton, Christopher S. and Christensen, Hannah M. and Gagne, David John and Hall, David and Hammerling, Dorit and Hoyer, Stephan and Iglesias-Suarez, Fernando and Lopez-Gomez, Ignacio and McGraw, Marie C. and Meehl, Gerald A. and Molina, Maria J. and Monteleoni, Claire and Mueller, Juliane and Pritchard, Michael S. and Rolnick, David and Runge, Jakob and Stier, Philip and Watt-Meyer, Oliver and Weigel, Katja and Yu, Rose and Zanna, Laure},
     journal = {Nature Climate Change},
     year = {2024},
     doi = {10.1038/s41558-024-02095-y},
   }

3. Combining Climate Models and Observations to Predict the Time Remaining until Regional Warming Thresholds Are Reached

   Barnes, Elizabeth A., Noah S. Diffenbaugh, and Sonia I. Seneviratne. 2024. Environmental Research Letters

   DOI Bib Cite

   @article{barnes2024thresholds,
     title = {Combining Climate Models and Observations to Predict the Time Remaining until Regional Warming Thresholds Are Reached},
     author = {Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Diffenbaugh, Noah S. and Seneviratne, Sonia I.},
     journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
     volume = {20},
     number = {1},
     pages = {014008},
     year = {2024},
     doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ad91ca},
   }

4. Data-driven Predictions of Peak Warming under Rapid Decarbonization

   Diffenbaugh, Noah S., and Elizabeth A. Barnes. 2024. Geophysical Research Letters

   DOI Bib Cite

   @article{diffenbaugh2024peakwarming,
     title = {Data-driven Predictions of Peak Warming under Rapid Decarbonization},
     author = {Diffenbaugh, Noah S. and Barnes, Elizabeth A.},
     journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
     volume = {51},
     number = {23},
     pages = {e2024GL111832},
     year = {2024},
     doi = {10.1029/2024GL111832},
   }

5. Speed of Environmental Change Frames Relative Ecological Risk in Climate Change and Climate Intervention Scenarios

   Hueholt, Daniel M., Elizabeth A. Barnes, James W. Hurrell, and Ariel L. Morrison. 2024. Nature Communications

   DOI Bib Cite

   @article{hueholt2024speed,
     title = {Speed of Environmental Change Frames Relative Ecological Risk in Climate Change and Climate Intervention Scenarios},
     author = {Hueholt, Daniel M. and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Hurrell, James W. and Morrison, Ariel L.},
     journal = {Nature Communications},
     year = {2024},
     doi = {10.1038/s41467-024-47656-z},
   }

6. Future Seasonal Surface Temperature Predictability with and without ARISE-Stratospheric Aerosol Injection-1.5

   Mayer, Kirsten J., Elizabeth A. Barnes, and James W. Hurrell. 2024. Environmental Research: Climate

   DOI Bib Cite

   @article{mayer2024predictability,
     title = {Future Seasonal Surface Temperature Predictability with and without ARISE-Stratospheric Aerosol Injection-1.5},
     author = {Mayer, Kirsten J. and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Hurrell, James W.},
     journal = {Environmental Research: Climate},
     year = {2024},
     doi = {10.1088/2752-5295/ad9b43},
   }

7. Ethics in Climate AI: From Theory to Practice

   Acquaviva, Viviana, Elizabeth A. Barnes, David John Gagne, and 2 more authors. 2024. PLOS Climate

   DOI Bib Cite

   @article{acquaviva2024ethics,
     title = {Ethics in Climate AI: From Theory to Practice},
     author = {Acquaviva, Viviana and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Gagne, David John and McKinley, Galen A. and Thais, Savannah},
     journal = {PLOS Climate},
     volume = {3},
     number = {8},
     pages = {e0000465},
     year = {2024},
     doi = {10.1371/journal.pclm.0000465},
   }

8. Errors of Opportunity: Using Neural Networks to Predict Errors in the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) on S2S Timescales

   Cahill, Jack, Elizabeth A. Barnes, Eric D. Maloney, and 3 more authors. 2024. Weather and Forecasting

   DOI Bib Cite

   @article{cahill2024errors,
     title = {Errors of Opportunity: Using Neural Networks to Predict Errors in the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) on S2S Timescales},
     author = {Cahill, Jack and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Maloney, Eric D. and Sain, Stephan R. and Harr, Patrick and Madaus, Luke},
     journal = {Weather and Forecasting},
     year = {2024},
     doi = {10.1175/WAF-D-23-0125.1},
   }

9. Combining Neural Networks and CMIP6 Simulations to Learn Windows of Opportunity for Skillful Prediction of Multiyear Sea Surface Temperature Variability

   Davenport, Frances V., Elizabeth A. Barnes, and Emily M. Gordon. 2024. Geophysical Research Letters

   DOI Bib Cite

   @article{davenport2024sst,
     title = {Combining Neural Networks and CMIP6 Simulations to Learn Windows of Opportunity for Skillful Prediction of Multiyear Sea Surface Temperature Variability},
     author = {Davenport, Frances V. and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Gordon, Emily M.},
     journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
     year = {2024},
     doi = {10.1029/2023GL108099},
   }

10. Incorrect Computation of Madden-Julian Oscillation Prediction Skill

    Suematsu, Tamaki, Zane Martin, Elizabeth A. Barnes, and 6 more authors. 2024. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science

    DOI Bib Cite

    @article{suematsu2024mjo,
      title = {Incorrect Computation of Madden-Julian Oscillation Prediction Skill},
      author = {Suematsu, Tamaki and Martin, Zane and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Ham, Yoo-Geun and Kim, Daehyun and Kim, Hyemi and Koh, Tieh-Yong and Maloney, Eric D. and DeMott, Charlotte A.},
      journal = {npj Climate and Atmospheric Science},
      year = {2024},
      doi = {10.1038/s41612-024-00687-1},
    }

11. AI2ES: The NSF AI Institute for Research on Trustworthy AI for Weather, Climate, and Coastal Oceanography

    McGovern, Amy, Imme Ebert-Uphoff, Elizabeth A. Barnes, and 4 more authors. 2024. AI Magazine

    DOI Bib Cite

    @article{mcgovern2024ai2es,
      title = {AI2ES: The NSF AI Institute for Research on Trustworthy AI for Weather, Climate, and Coastal Oceanography},
      author = {McGovern, Amy and Ebert-Uphoff, Imme and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Bostrom, Ann and Cains, Mariana G. and Davis, Phillip and Demuth, Julie L.},
      journal = {AI Magazine},
      year = {2024},
      doi = {10.1002/aaai.12160},
    }

12. Projected Changes to Arctic Shipping Routes after Stratospheric Aerosol Deployment in the ARISE-SAI Scenarios

    Morrison, Ariel L., Debanjali Pathak, Elizabeth A. Barnes, and 1 more author. 2024. Frontiers in Climate

    DOI Bib Cite

    @article{morrison2024shipping,
      title = {Projected Changes to Arctic Shipping Routes after Stratospheric Aerosol Deployment in the ARISE-SAI Scenarios},
      author = {Morrison, Ariel L. and Pathak, Debanjali and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Hurrell, James W.},
      journal = {Frontiers in Climate},
      year = {2024},
      doi = {10.3389/fclim.2024.1426679},
    }

13. Quantifying the Impact of Internal Variability on the CESM2 Control Algorithm for Stratospheric Aerosol Injection

    Connolly, Charlotte, Emily M. Prewett, Elizabeth A. Barnes, and 1 more author. 2024. Earth’s Future

    DOI Bib Cite

    @article{connolly2024control,
      title = {Quantifying the Impact of Internal Variability on the CESM2 Control Algorithm for Stratospheric Aerosol Injection},
      author = {Connolly, Charlotte and Prewett, Emily M. and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Hurrell, James W.},
      journal = {Earth's Future},
      volume = {12},
      number = {6},
      pages = {e2023EF004300},
      year = {2024},
      doi = {10.1029/2023EF004300},
    }

14. Natural Variability Can Mask Forced Permafrost Response to Stratospheric Aerosol Injection in the ARISE-SAI-1.5 Simulations

    Morrison, Ariel L., Elizabeth A. Barnes, and James W. Hurrell. 2024. Earth’s Future

    DOI Bib Cite

    @article{morrison2024permafrostmask,
      title = {Natural Variability Can Mask Forced Permafrost Response to Stratospheric Aerosol Injection in the ARISE-SAI-1.5 Simulations},
      author = {Morrison, Ariel L. and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Hurrell, James W.},
      journal = {Earth's Future},
      volume = {12},
      number = {6},
      pages = {e2023EF004191},
      year = {2024},
      doi = {10.1029/2023EF004191},
    }

15. Stratospheric Aerosol Injection to Stabilize Northern Hemisphere Terrestrial Permafrost Extent under the ARISE-SAI-1.5 Scenario

    Morrison, Ariel L., Elizabeth A. Barnes, and James W. Hurrell. 2024. Earth’s Future

    DOI Bib Cite

    @article{morrison2024permafrost,
      title = {Stratospheric Aerosol Injection to Stabilize Northern Hemisphere Terrestrial Permafrost Extent under the ARISE-SAI-1.5 Scenario},
      author = {Morrison, Ariel L. and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Hurrell, James W.},
      journal = {Earth's Future},
      year = {2024},
      doi = {10.1029/2023EF004151},
    }

2023

1. Data-Driven Predictions of the Time Remaining until Critical Global Warming Thresholds Are Reached

   Diffenbaugh, Noah S., and Elizabeth A. Barnes. 2023. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

   DOI Bib Cite

   @article{diffenbaugh2023timeremaining,
     title = {Data-Driven Predictions of the Time Remaining until Critical Global Warming Thresholds Are Reached},
     author = {Diffenbaugh, Noah S. and Barnes, Elizabeth A.},
     journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
     volume = {120},
     number = {6},
     pages = {e2207183120},
     year = {2023},
     doi = {10.1073/pnas.2207183120},
   }

2. Sinh-Arcsinh-Normal Distributions to Add Uncertainty to Neural Network Regression Tasks: Applications to Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts

   Barnes, Elizabeth A., Randal J. Barnes, and Mark DeMaria. 2023. Environmental Data Science

   DOI Bib Cite

   @article{barnes2023sinharcsinh,
     title = {Sinh-Arcsinh-Normal Distributions to Add Uncertainty to Neural Network Regression Tasks: Applications to Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts},
     author = {Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Barnes, Randal J. and DeMaria, Mark},
     journal = {Environmental Data Science},
     volume = {2},
     pages = {e15},
     year = {2023},
     doi = {10.1017/eds.2023.7},
   }

3. Carefully Choose the Baseline: Lessons Learned from Applying XAI Attribution Methods for Regression Tasks in Geoscience

   Mamalakis, Antonios, Elizabeth A. Barnes, and Imme Ebert-Uphoff. 2023. Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems

   DOI Bib Cite

   @article{mamalakis2023baseline,
     title = {Carefully Choose the Baseline: Lessons Learned from Applying XAI Attribution Methods for Regression Tasks in Geoscience},
     author = {Mamalakis, Antonios and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Ebert-Uphoff, Imme},
     journal = {Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems},
     volume = {2},
     number = {1},
     year = {2023},
     doi = {10.1175/AIES-D-22-0058.1},
   }

4. Optimizing Seasonal-To-Decadal Analog Forecasts with a Learned Spatially-Weighted Mask

   Rader, Jamin K., and Elizabeth A. Barnes. 2023. Geophysical Research Letters

   DOI Bib Cite

   @article{rader2023analog,
     title = {Optimizing Seasonal-To-Decadal Analog Forecasts with a Learned Spatially-Weighted Mask},
     author = {Rader, Jamin K. and Barnes, Elizabeth A.},
     journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
     volume = {50},
     number = {23},
     pages = {e2023GL104983},
     year = {2023},
     doi = {10.1029/2023GL104983},
   }

5. Using Explainable Artificial Intelligence to Quantify "Climate Distinguishability" After Stratospheric Aerosol Injection

   Mamalakis, Antonios, Elizabeth A. Barnes, and James W. Hurrell. 2023. Geophysical Research Letters

   DOI Bib Cite

   @article{mamalakis2023distinguishability,
     title = {Using Explainable Artificial Intelligence to Quantify "Climate Distinguishability" After Stratospheric Aerosol Injection},
     author = {Mamalakis, Antonios and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Hurrell, James W.},
     journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
     year = {2023},
     doi = {10.1029/2023GL106137},
   }

6. Using Neural Networks to Learn the Jet Stream Forced Response from Natural Variability

   Connolly, Charlotte, Elizabeth A. Barnes, Pedram Hassanzadeh, and 1 more author. 2023. Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems

   DOI Bib Cite

   @article{connolly2023jetstream,
     title = {Using Neural Networks to Learn the Jet Stream Forced Response from Natural Variability},
     author = {Connolly, Charlotte and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Hassanzadeh, Pedram and Pritchard, Mike},
     journal = {Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems},
     volume = {2},
     number = {2},
     year = {2023},
     doi = {10.1175/AIES-D-22-0094.1},
   }

7. Separating Internal and Forced Contributions to Near Term SST Predictability in the CESM2-LE

   Gordon, Emily M., Elizabeth A. Barnes, and Frances V. Davenport. 2023. Environmental Research Letters

   DOI Bib Cite

   @article{gordon2023sst,
     title = {Separating Internal and Forced Contributions to Near Term SST Predictability in the CESM2-LE},
     author = {Gordon, Emily M. and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Davenport, Frances V.},
     journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
     year = {2023},
     doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/acfdbc},
   }

8. ClimSim: An Open Large-Scale Dataset for Training High-Resolution Physics Emulators in Hybrid Multi-Scale Climate Simulators

   Yu, Sungduk, Walter Hannah, Elizabeth A. Barnes, and 1 more author. 2023. arXiv

   non-refereed

   DOI Bib Cite

   @article{yu2023climsim,
     title = {ClimSim: An Open Large-Scale Dataset for Training High-Resolution Physics Emulators in Hybrid Multi-Scale Climate Simulators},
     author = {Yu, Sungduk and Hannah, Walter and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and others},
     journal = {arXiv},
     note = {non-refereed},
     year = {2023},
     doi = {10.48550/arXiv.2306.08754},
   }

9. Assessing Decadal Variability of Subseasonal Forecasts of Opportunity using Explainable AI

   Arcodia, Marybeth, Elizabeth A. Barnes, Kirsten Mayer, and 3 more authors. 2023. Environmental Research: Climate

   DOI Bib Cite

   @article{arcodia2023decadal,
     title = {Assessing Decadal Variability of Subseasonal Forecasts of Opportunity using Explainable AI},
     author = {Arcodia, Marybeth and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Mayer, Kirsten and Lee, Jiwoo and Ordonez, Ana and Ahn, Min-Seop},
     journal = {Environmental Research: Climate},
     year = {2023},
     doi = {10.1088/2752-5295/aced60},
   }

10. Using Machine Learning with Partial Dependence Analysis to Investigate Coupling between Soil Moisture and Near-surface Temperature

    Trok, Jared T., Frances V. Davenport, Elizabeth A. Barnes, and 1 more author. 2023. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres

    DOI Bib Cite

    @article{trok2023soil,
      title = {Using Machine Learning with Partial Dependence Analysis to Investigate Coupling between Soil Moisture and Near-surface Temperature},
      author = {Trok, Jared T. and Davenport, Frances V. and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Diffenbaugh, Noah S.},
      journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
      year = {2023},
      doi = {10.1029/2022JD038365},
    }

11. Assessing Outcomes in Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Scenarios Shortly after Deployment

    Hueholt, Daniel M., Elizabeth A. Barnes, James W. Hurrell, and 2 more authors. 2023. Earth’s Future

    DOI Bib Cite

    @article{hueholt2023outcomes,
      title = {Assessing Outcomes in Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Scenarios Shortly after Deployment},
      author = {Hueholt, Daniel M. and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Hurrell, James W. and Richter, Jadwiga H. and Sun, Lantao},
      journal = {Earth's Future},
      volume = {11},
      number = {5},
      year = {2023},
      doi = {10.1029/2023EF003488},
    }

12. Probability of Continued Local-Scale Warming and Extreme Events during and after Decarbonization

    Diffenbaugh, Noah S., Elizabeth A. Barnes, and Patrick W. Keys. 2023. Environmental Research: Climate

    DOI Bib Cite

    @article{diffenbaugh2023probability,
      title = {Probability of Continued Local-Scale Warming and Extreme Events during and after Decarbonization},
      author = {Diffenbaugh, Noah S. and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Keys, Patrick W.},
      journal = {Environmental Research: Climate},
      year = {2023},
      doi = {10.1088/2752-5295/accf2f},
    }

13. Identifying the Regional Emergence of Climate Patterns in the ARISE-SAI-1.5 Simulations

    Labe, Zachary Michael, Elizabeth A. Barnes, and James Hurrell. 2023. Environmental Research Letters

    DOI Bib Cite

    @article{labe2023emergence,
      title = {Identifying the Regional Emergence of Climate Patterns in the ARISE-SAI-1.5 Simulations},
      author = {Labe, Zachary Michael and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Hurrell, James},
      journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
      year = {2023},
      doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/acc81a},
    }

14. Spring Regional Sea Surface Temperatures as a Precursor of European Summer Heatwaves

    Beobide-Arsuaga, Goratz, André Düsterhus, Wolfgang A. Müller, Elizabeth A. Barnes, and Johanna Baehr. 2023. Geophysical Research Letters

    DOI Bib Cite

    @article{beobidearsuaga2023heatwaves,
      title = {Spring Regional Sea Surface Temperatures as a Precursor of European Summer Heatwaves},
      author = {Beobide-Arsuaga, Goratz and D{\"u}sterhus, Andr{\'e} and M{\"u}ller, Wolfgang A. and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Baehr, Johanna},
      journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
      volume = {50},
      number = {2},
      year = {2023},
      doi = {10.1029/2022GL100727},
    }

2022

1. Internal Variability and Forcing Influence Model-Satellite Differences in the Rate of Tropical Tropospheric Warming

   Po-Chedley, Stephen, John T. Fasullo, Nicholas Siler, Zachary M. Labe, Elizabeth A. Barnes, Céline J. W. Bonfils, and Benjamin D. Santer. 2022. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

   DOI Bib Cite

   @article{pochedley2022warming,
     title = {Internal Variability and Forcing Influence Model-Satellite Differences in the Rate of Tropical Tropospheric Warming},
     author = {Po-Chedley, Stephen and Fasullo, John T. and Siler, Nicholas and Labe, Zachary M. and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Bonfils, C{\'e}line J. W. and Santer, Benjamin D.},
     journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
     volume = {119},
     number = {47},
     pages = {e2209431119},
     year = {2022},
     doi = {10.1073/pnas.2209431119},
   }

2. Detecting Changes in Global Extremes under the GLENS-SAI Climate Intervention Strategy

   Barnes, Elizabeth A., James W. Hurrell, and Lantao Sun. 2022. Geophysical Research Letters

   DOI Bib Cite

   @article{barnes2022extremes,
     title = {Detecting Changes in Global Extremes under the GLENS-SAI Climate Intervention Strategy},
     author = {Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Hurrell, James W. and Sun, Lantao},
     journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
     volume = {49},
     number = {20},
     year = {2022},
     doi = {10.1029/2022GL100198},
   }

3. Solar Geoengineering Might Work, but Local Temperatures Could Keep Rising for Years

   Keys, Patrick W., Curtis Bell, Elizabeth A. Barnes, and 2 more authors. 2022. The Conversation

   non-refereed

   DOI Bib Cite

   @article{keys2022conversation,
     title = {Solar Geoengineering Might Work, but Local Temperatures Could Keep Rising for Years},
     author = {Keys, Patrick W. and Bell, Curtis and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Hurrell, James W. and Diffenbaugh, Noah},
     journal = {The Conversation},
     year = {2022},
     doi = {10.64628/AAI.hmdvm4jww},
     note = {non-refereed},
   }

4. Potential for Perceived Failure of Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Deployment

   Keys, Patrick W., Elizabeth A. Barnes, Noah S. Diffenbaugh, and 2 more authors. 2022. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

   DOI Bib Cite

   @article{keys2022failure,
     title = {Potential for Perceived Failure of Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Deployment},
     author = {Keys, Patrick W. and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Diffenbaugh, Noah S. and Hurrell, James W. and Bell, Curtis M.},
     journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
     volume = {119},
     number = {40},
     pages = {e2210036119},
     year = {2022},
     doi = {10.1073/pnas.2210036119},
   }

5. Explainable Artificial Intelligence in Meteorology and Climate Science: Model Fine-Tuning, Calibrating Trust and Learning New Science

   Mamalakis, Antonios, Imme Ebert-Uphoff, and Elizabeth A. Barnes. 2022. In xxAI - Beyond Explainable AI: International Workshop, Held in Conjunction with ICML 2020

   non-refereed

   DOI Bib Cite

   @incollection{mamalakis2022xai,
     title = {Explainable Artificial Intelligence in Meteorology and Climate Science: Model Fine-Tuning, Calibrating Trust and Learning New Science},
     author = {Mamalakis, Antonios and Ebert-Uphoff, Imme and Barnes, Elizabeth A.},
     booktitle = {xxAI - Beyond Explainable AI: International Workshop, Held in Conjunction with ICML 2020},
     editor = {Holzinger, Andreas and Goebel, Randy and Fong, Ruth and Moon, Taesup and M{\"u}ller, Klaus-Robert and Samek, Wojciech},
     pages = {315--339},
     publisher = {Springer International Publishing},
     address = {Cham},
     year = {2022},
     doi = {10.1007/978-3-031-04083-2_16},
     note = {non-refereed},
   }

6. Investigating the Fidelity of Explainable Artificial Intelligence Methods for Applications of Convolutional Neural Networks in Geoscience

   Mamalakis, Antonios, Elizabeth A. Barnes, and Imme Ebert-Uphoff. 2022. Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems

   DOI Bib Cite

   @article{mamalakis2022fidelity,
     title = {Investigating the Fidelity of Explainable Artificial Intelligence Methods for Applications of Convolutional Neural Networks in Geoscience},
     author = {Mamalakis, Antonios and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Ebert-Uphoff, Imme},
     journal = {Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems},
     year = {2022},
     doi = {10.1175/AIES-D-22-0012.1},
   }

7. Incorporating Uncertainty into a Regression Neural Network Enables Identification of Decadal State-Dependent Predictability in CESM2

   Gordon, Emily M., and Elizabeth A. Barnes. 2022. Geophysical Research Letters

   DOI Bib Cite

   @article{gordon2022uncertainty,
     title = {Incorporating Uncertainty into a Regression Neural Network Enables Identification of Decadal State-Dependent Predictability in CESM2},
     author = {Gordon, Emily M. and Barnes, Elizabeth A.},
     journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
     year = {2022},
     doi = {10.1029/2022GL098635},
   }

8. Comparison of Climate Model Large Ensembles with Observations in the Arctic Using Simple Neural Networks

   Labe, Zachary M., and Elizabeth A. Barnes. 2022. Earth and Space Science

   DOI Bib Cite

   @article{labe2022arctic,
     title = {Comparison of Climate Model Large Ensembles with Observations in the Arctic Using Simple Neural Networks},
     author = {Labe, Zachary M. and Barnes, Elizabeth A.},
     journal = {Earth and Space Science},
     volume = {9},
     number = {7},
     year = {2022},
     doi = {10.1029/2022EA002348},
   }

9. Detection of Forced Change within Combined Climate Fields Using Explainable Neural Networks

   Rader, Jamin K., Elizabeth A. Barnes, Imme Ebert-Uphoff, and 1 more author. 2022. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems

   DOI Bib Cite

   @article{rader2022detection,
     title = {Detection of Forced Change within Combined Climate Fields Using Explainable Neural Networks},
     author = {Rader, Jamin K. and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Ebert-Uphoff, Imme and Anderson, Chuck},
     journal = {Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems},
     volume = {14},
     number = {7},
     year = {2022},
     doi = {10.1029/2021MS002941},
   }

10. Applied Machine Learning Tutorial for Earth Scientists

    Arcodia, Marybeth, Elizabeth Barnes, Charlotte Connolly, Frances Davenport, Zaibeth Carlo Frontera, Emily Gordon, Daniel Hueholt, Antonios Mamalakis, and Elina Valkonen. 2022

    non-refereed

    DOI Bib Cite

    @misc{arcodia2022tutorial,
      title = {Applied Machine Learning Tutorial for Earth Scientists},
      author = {Arcodia, Marybeth and Barnes, Elizabeth and Connolly, Charlotte and Davenport, Frances and Carlo Frontera, Zaibeth and Gordon, Emily and Hueholt, Daniel and Mamalakis, Antonios and Valkonen, Elina},
      howpublished = {Zenodo},
      year = {2022},
      doi = {10.5281/zenodo.6686879},
      note = {non-refereed},
    }

11. This Looks Like That There: Interpretable Neural Networks for Image Tasks When Location Matters

    Barnes, Elizabeth A., Randal J. Barnes, Zane K. Martin, and Jamin K. Rader. 2022. Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems

    DOI Bib Cite

    @article{barnes2022thislooks,
      title = {This Looks Like That There: Interpretable Neural Networks for Image Tasks When Location Matters},
      author = {Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Barnes, Randal J. and Martin, Zane K. and Rader, Jamin K.},
      journal = {Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems},
      volume = {1},
      number = {3},
      year = {2022},
      doi = {10.1175/AIES-D-22-0001.1},
    }

12. Quantifying the Effect of Climate Change on Midlatitude Subseasonal Prediction Skill Provided by the Tropics

    Mayer, Kirsten J., and Elizabeth A. Barnes. 2022. Geophysical Research Letters

    DOI Bib Cite

    @article{mayer2022skill,
      title = {Quantifying the Effect of Climate Change on Midlatitude Subseasonal Prediction Skill Provided by the Tropics},
      author = {Mayer, Kirsten J. and Barnes, Elizabeth A.},
      journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
      volume = {49},
      number = {14},
      pages = {e2022GL098663},
      year = {2022},
      doi = {10.1029/2022GL098663},
    }

13. Neural Network Attribution Methods for Problems in Geoscience: A Novel Synthetic Benchmark Dataset

    Mamalakis, Antonios, Imme Ebert-Uphoff, and Elizabeth A. Barnes. 2022. Environmental Data Science

    DOI Bib Cite

    @article{mamalakis2022benchmark,
      title = {Neural Network Attribution Methods for Problems in Geoscience: A Novel Synthetic Benchmark Dataset},
      author = {Mamalakis, Antonios and Ebert-Uphoff, Imme and Barnes, Elizabeth A.},
      journal = {Environmental Data Science},
      volume = {1},
      year = {2022},
      doi = {10.1017/eds.2022.7},
    }

14. CSU - Synthetic Attribution Benchmark Dataset

    Mamalakis, Antonios, Imme Ebert-Uphoff, and Elizabeth A. Barnes. 2022

    non-refereed

    DOI Bib Cite

    @misc{mamalakis2022dataset,
      title = {CSU - Synthetic Attribution Benchmark Dataset},
      author = {Mamalakis, Antonios and Ebert-Uphoff, Imme and Barnes, Elizabeth A.},
      howpublished = {Radiant MLHub},
      year = {2022},
      doi = {10.34911/RDNT.8SNX6C},
      note = {non-refereed},
    }

15. Predicting Slowdowns in Decadal Climate Warming Trends with Explainable Neural Networks

    Labe, Zachary M., and Elizabeth A. Barnes. 2022. Geophysical Research Letters

    DOI Bib Cite

    @article{labe2022slowdowns,
      title = {Predicting Slowdowns in Decadal Climate Warming Trends with Explainable Neural Networks},
      author = {Labe, Zachary M. and Barnes, Elizabeth A.},
      journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
      volume = {49},
      number = {9},
      year = {2022},
      doi = {10.1029/2022GL098173},
    }

16. Using Simple, Explainable Neural Networks to Predict the Madden-Julian Oscillation

    Martin, Zane K., Elizabeth A. Barnes, and Eric Maloney. 2022. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems

    DOI Bib Cite

    @article{martin2022mjo,
      title = {Using Simple, Explainable Neural Networks to Predict the Madden-Julian Oscillation},
      author = {Martin, Zane K. and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Maloney, Eric},
      journal = {Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems},
      volume = {14},
      number = {5},
      year = {2022},
      doi = {10.1029/2021MS002774},
    }

17. Role of the Tropics in State-dependent Improvements of US West Coast NOAA Unified Forecast System Precipitation Forecasts

    Hsiao, Wei-Ting, Elizabeth A. Barnes, Eric D. Maloney, and 3 more authors. 2022. Geophysical Research Letters

    DOI Bib Cite

    @article{hsiao2022tropics,
      title = {Role of the Tropics in State-dependent Improvements of US West Coast NOAA Unified Forecast System Precipitation Forecasts},
      author = {Hsiao, Wei-Ting and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Maloney, Eric D. and Tulich, Stefan N. and Dias, Juliana and Kiladis, George N.},
      journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
      volume = {49},
      number = {5},
      year = {2022},
      doi = {10.1029/2021GL096447},
    }

18. Wintertime Rossby Wave Breaking Persistence in Extended-Range Seasonal Forecasts of Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity

    Jones, Jhordanne J., Michael M. Bell, Philip J. Klotzbach, and Elizabeth A. Barnes. 2022. Journal of Climate

    DOI Bib Cite

    @article{jones2022rossby,
      title = {Wintertime Rossby Wave Breaking Persistence in Extended-Range Seasonal Forecasts of Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity},
      author = {Jones, Jhordanne J. and Bell, Michael M. and Klotzbach, Philip J. and Barnes, Elizabeth A.},
      journal = {Journal of Climate},
      volume = {35},
      number = {7},
      pages = {2133--2147},
      year = {2022},
      doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0213.1},
    }

2021

1. Oceanic Harbingers of Pacific Decadal Oscillation Predictability in CESM2 Detected by Neural Networks

   Gordon, Emily M., Elizabeth A. Barnes, and James W. Hurrell. 2021. Geophysical Research Letters

   DOI Bib Cite

   @article{gordon2021harbingers,
     title = {Oceanic Harbingers of Pacific Decadal Oscillation Predictability in CESM2 Detected by Neural Networks},
     author = {Gordon, Emily M. and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Hurrell, James W.},
     journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
     year = {2021},
     doi = {10.1029/2021GL095392},
   }

2. Controlled Abstention Neural Networks for Identifying Skillful Predictions for Regression Problems

   Barnes, Elizabeth A., and Randal J. Barnes. 2021. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems

   DOI Bib Cite

   @article{barnes2021canregression,
     title = {Controlled Abstention Neural Networks for Identifying Skillful Predictions for Regression Problems},
     author = {Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Barnes, Randal J.},
     journal = {Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems},
     volume = {13},
     number = {12},
     year = {2021},
     doi = {10.1029/2021MS002575},
   }

3. Controlled Abstention Neural Networks for Identifying Skillful Predictions for Classification Problems

   Barnes, Elizabeth A., and Randal J. Barnes. 2021. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems

   DOI Bib Cite

   @article{barnes2021canclassification,
     title = {Controlled Abstention Neural Networks for Identifying Skillful Predictions for Classification Problems},
     author = {Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Barnes, Randal J.},
     journal = {Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems},
     volume = {13},
     number = {12},
     year = {2021},
     doi = {10.1029/2021MS002573},
   }

4. Adding Uncertainty to Neural Network Regression Tasks in the Geosciences

   Barnes, Elizabeth A., Randal J. Barnes, and Nicolas Gordillo. 2021. arXiv

   non-refereed

   DOI Bib Cite

   @article{barnes2021uncertainty,
     title = {Adding Uncertainty to Neural Network Regression Tasks in the Geosciences},
     author = {Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Barnes, Randal J. and Gordillo, Nicolas},
     journal = {arXiv},
     note = {non-refereed},
     year = {2021},
     doi = {10.48550/arXiv.2109.07250},
   }

5. Advancing the Predictability of Water Cycle Phenomena via the Application of AI to Model Ensemble Simulations and Observations

   Klein, Stephen, Elizabeth Barnes, Céline Bonfils, and 5 more authors. 2021

   non-refereed

   DOI Bib Cite

   @techreport{klein2021water,
     title = {Advancing the Predictability of Water Cycle Phenomena via the Application of AI to Model Ensemble Simulations and Observations},
     author = {Klein, Stephen and Barnes, Elizabeth and Bonfils, C{\'e}line and Durack, Paul and Goncalves, Andr{\'e} and Hall, Alex and Lee, Jiwoo and others},
     institution = {Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Archive},
     year = {2021},
     doi = {10.2172/1769656},
     note = {non-refereed},
   }

6. Machine Learning to Extend and Understand the Sources and Limits of Water Cycle Predictability on Subseasonal-to-Decadal Timescales in the Earth System

   Dagon, Katherine, Maria Molina, Gerald Meehl, Jadwiga Richter, Elizabeth Barnes, Judith Berner, Julie Caron, and others. 2021

   non-refereed

   DOI Bib Cite

   @techreport{dagon2021water,
     title = {Machine Learning to Extend and Understand the Sources and Limits of Water Cycle Predictability on Subseasonal-to-Decadal Timescales in the Earth System},
     author = {Dagon, Katherine and Molina, Maria and Meehl, Gerald and Richter, Jadwiga and Barnes, Elizabeth and Berner, Judith and Caron, Julie and others},
     institution = {Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Archive},
     year = {2021},
     doi = {10.2172/1769744},
     note = {non-refereed},
   }

7. Facilitating Better and Faster Simulations of Aerosol-Cloud Interactions in Earth System Models

   Ma, Po-Lun, Christopher Bretherton, Panos Stinis, Vince Larson, Elizabeth Barnes, Sam Silva, Joseph Hardin, and others. 2021

   non-refereed

   DOI Bib Cite

   @techreport{ma2021aerosol,
     title = {Facilitating Better and Faster Simulations of Aerosol-Cloud Interactions in Earth System Models},
     author = {Ma, Po-Lun and Bretherton, Christopher and Stinis, Panos and Larson, Vince and Barnes, Elizabeth and Silva, Sam and Hardin, Joseph and others},
     institution = {Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Archive},
     year = {2021},
     doi = {10.2172/1769709},
     note = {non-refereed},
   }

8. Drivers of Uncertainty in Future Projections of Madden-Julian Oscillation Teleconnections

   Jenney, Andrea M., David A. Randall, and Elizabeth A. Barnes. 2021. Weather and Climate Dynamics

   DOI Bib Cite

   @article{jenney2021drivers,
     title = {Drivers of Uncertainty in Future Projections of Madden-Julian Oscillation Teleconnections},
     author = {Jenney, Andrea M. and Randall, David A. and Barnes, Elizabeth A.},
     journal = {Weather and Climate Dynamics},
     volume = {2},
     number = {3},
     pages = {653--673},
     year = {2021},
     doi = {10.5194/wcd-2-653-2021},
   }

9. Towards Neural Earth System Modelling by Integrating Artificial Intelligence in Earth System Science

   Irrgang, Christopher, Niklas Boers, Maike Sonnewald, Elizabeth A. Barnes, Christopher Kadow, Joanna Staneva, and Jan Saynisch-Wagner. 2021. Nature Machine Intelligence

   DOI Bib Cite

   @article{irrgang2021neural,
     title = {Towards Neural Earth System Modelling by Integrating Artificial Intelligence in Earth System Science},
     author = {Irrgang, Christopher and Boers, Niklas and Sonnewald, Maike and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Kadow, Christopher and Staneva, Joanna and Saynisch-Wagner, Jan},
     journal = {Nature Machine Intelligence},
     volume = {3},
     number = {8},
     pages = {667--674},
     year = {2021},
     doi = {10.1038/s42256-021-00374-3},
   }

10. Detecting Climate Signals Using Explainable AI with Single-forcing Large Ensembles

    Labe, Zachary M., and Elizabeth A. Barnes. 2021. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems

    DOI Bib Cite

    @article{labe2021signals,
      title = {Detecting Climate Signals Using Explainable AI with Single-forcing Large Ensembles},
      author = {Labe, Zachary M. and Barnes, Elizabeth A.},
      journal = {Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems},
      volume = {13},
      number = {6},
      year = {2021},
      doi = {10.1029/2021MS002464},
    }

11. Subseasonal Forecasts of Opportunity Identified by an Explainable Neural Network

    Mayer, Kirsten J., and Elizabeth A. Barnes. 2021. Geophysical Research Letters

    DOI Bib Cite

    @article{mayer2021forecasts,
      title = {Subseasonal Forecasts of Opportunity Identified by an Explainable Neural Network},
      author = {Mayer, Kirsten J. and Barnes, Elizabeth A.},
      journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
      year = {2021},
      doi = {10.1029/2020GL092092},
    }

12. Assessing Decadal Predictability in an Earth-system Model Using Explainable Neural Networks

    Toms, Benjamin A., Elizabeth A. Barnes, and James W. Hurrell. 2021. Geophysical Research Letters

    DOI Bib Cite

    @article{toms2021decadal,
      title = {Assessing Decadal Predictability in an Earth-system Model Using Explainable Neural Networks},
      author = {Toms, Benjamin A. and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Hurrell, James W.},
      journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
      volume = {48},
      number = {12},
      year = {2021},
      doi = {10.1029/2021GL093842},
    }

13. Mapping Large-Scale Climate Variability to Hydrological Extremes: An Application of the Linear Inverse Model to Subseasonal Prediction

    Tseng, Kai-Chih, Nathaniel C. Johnson, Eric D. Maloney, Elizabeth A. Barnes, and Sarah B. Kapnick. 2021. Journal of Climate

    DOI Bib Cite

    @article{tseng2021mapping,
      title = {Mapping Large-Scale Climate Variability to Hydrological Extremes: An Application of the Linear Inverse Model to Subseasonal Prediction},
      author = {Tseng, Kai-Chih and Johnson, Nathaniel C. and Maloney, Eric D. and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Kapnick, Sarah B.},
      journal = {Journal of Climate},
      volume = {34},
      number = {11},
      pages = {4207--4225},
      year = {2021},
      doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0502.1},
    }

14. Strengthened Causal Connections between the MJO and the North Atlantic with Climate Warming

    Samarasinghe, Savini M., Charlotte Connolly, Elizabeth A. Barnes, and 2 more authors. 2021. Geophysical Research Letters

    DOI Bib Cite

    @article{samarasinghe2021causal,
      title = {Strengthened Causal Connections between the MJO and the North Atlantic with Climate Warming},
      author = {Samarasinghe, Savini M. and Connolly, Charlotte and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Ebert-Uphoff, Imme and Sun, Lantao},
      journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
      volume = {48},
      number = {5},
      year = {2021},
      doi = {10.1029/2020GL091168},
    }

15. A Machine-Learning Approach to Human Footprint Index Estimation with Applications to Sustainable Development

    Keys, Patrick W., Elizabeth A. Barnes, and Neil H. Carter. 2021. Environmental Research Letters

    DOI Bib Cite

    @article{keys2021footprint,
      title = {A Machine-Learning Approach to Human Footprint Index Estimation with Applications to Sustainable Development},
      author = {Keys, Patrick W. and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Carter, Neil H.},
      journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
      volume = {16},
      number = {4},
      pages = {044061},
      year = {2021},
      doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/abe00a},
    }

2020

1. Moisture- versus Wind-dominated Flavors of Atmospheric Rivers

   Gonzales, Katerina R., Daniel L. Swain, Elizabeth A. Barnes, and 1 more author. 2020. Geophysical Research Letters

   DOI Bib Cite

   @article{gonzales2020flavors,
     title = {Moisture- versus Wind-dominated Flavors of Atmospheric Rivers},
     author = {Gonzales, Katerina R. and Swain, Daniel L. and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Diffenbaugh, Noah S.},
     journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
     pages = {e2020GL090042},
     year = {2020},
     doi = {10.1029/2020GL090042},
   }

2. Investigating Recent Changes in MJO Precipitation and Circulation in Multiple Reanalyses

   Hsiao, Wei-Ting, Eric D. Maloney, and Elizabeth A. Barnes. 2020. Geophysical Research Letters

   DOI Bib Cite

   @article{hsiao2020mjo,
     title = {Investigating Recent Changes in MJO Precipitation and Circulation in Multiple Reanalyses},
     author = {Hsiao, Wei-Ting and Maloney, Eric D. and Barnes, Elizabeth A.},
     journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
     volume = {47},
     number = {22},
     year = {2020},
     doi = {10.1029/2020GL090139},
   }

3. Identifying Opportunities for Skillful Weather Prediction with Interpretable Neural Networks

   Barnes, Elizabeth A., Kirsten Mayer, Benjamin Toms, Zane Martin, and Emily Gordon. 2020. NeurIPS AI4EARTH Workshop

   non-refereed

   DOI Bib Cite

   @article{barnes2020opportunities,
     title = {Identifying Opportunities for Skillful Weather Prediction with Interpretable Neural Networks},
     author = {Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Mayer, Kirsten and Toms, Benjamin and Martin, Zane and Gordon, Emily},
     journal = {NeurIPS AI4EARTH Workshop},
     note = {non-refereed},
     year = {2020},
     doi = {10.48550/arXiv.2012.07830},
   }

4. Estimating the Spread in Future Fine Dust Concentrations in the Southwest United States

   Brey, Steven J., Jeffrey R. Pierce, Elizabeth A. Barnes, and 1 more author. 2020. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres

   DOI Bib Cite

   @article{brey2020dust,
     title = {Estimating the Spread in Future Fine Dust Concentrations in the Southwest United States},
     author = {Brey, Steven J. and Pierce, Jeffrey R. and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Fischer, Emily V.},
     journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
     volume = {125},
     number = {21},
     pages = {e2019JD031735},
     year = {2020},
     doi = {10.1029/2019JD031735},
   }

5. Skillful All-Season S2S Prediction of U.S. Precipitation Using the MJO and QBO

   Nardi, Kyle M., Cory F. Baggett, Elizabeth A. Barnes, and 3 more authors. 2020. Weather and Forecasting

   DOI Bib Cite

   @article{nardi2020prediction,
     title = {Skillful All-Season S2S Prediction of U.S. Precipitation Using the MJO and QBO},
     author = {Nardi, Kyle M. and Baggett, Cory F. and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Maloney, Eric D. and Harnos, Daniel S. and Ciasto, Laura M.},
     journal = {Weather and Forecasting},
     volume = {35},
     number = {5},
     pages = {2179--2198},
     year = {2020},
     doi = {10.1175/WAF-D-19-0232.1},
   }

6. Separating Forced and Unforced Components of Climate Change: The Utility of Pattern Recognition Methods in Large Ensembles and Observations

   Wills, Robert, Sebastian Sippel, and Elizabeth A. Barnes. 2020. US CLIVAR Variations

   non-refereed

   DOI Bib Cite

   @article{wills2020separating,
     title = {Separating Forced and Unforced Components of Climate Change: The Utility of Pattern Recognition Methods in Large Ensembles and Observations},
     author = {Wills, Robert and Sippel, Sebastian and Barnes, Elizabeth A.},
     journal = {US CLIVAR Variations},
     year = {2020},
     doi = {10.5065/0DSY-WH17},
     note = {non-refereed},
   }

7. Indicator Patterns of Forced Change Learned by an Artificial Neural Network

   Barnes, Elizabeth A., Benjamin Toms, James W. Hurrell, and 3 more authors. 2020. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems

   DOI Bib Cite

   @article{barnes2020indicator,
     title = {Indicator Patterns of Forced Change Learned by an Artificial Neural Network},
     author = {Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Toms, Benjamin and Hurrell, James W. and Ebert-Uphoff, Imme and Anderson, Chuck and Anderson, David},
     journal = {Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems},
     pages = {e2020MS002195},
     year = {2020},
     doi = {10.1029/2020MS002195},
   }

8. Past Variance and Future Projections of the Environmental Conditions Driving Western U.S. Summertime Wildfire Burn Area

   Brey, Steven J., Elizabeth A. Barnes, Jeffrey R. Pierce, and 2 more authors. 2020. Earth’s Future

   DOI Bib Cite

   @article{brey2020wildfire,
     title = {Past Variance and Future Projections of the Environmental Conditions Driving Western U.S. Summertime Wildfire Burn Area},
     author = {Brey, Steven J. and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Pierce, Jeffrey R. and Swann, Abigail L. S. and Fischer, Emily V.},
     journal = {Earth's Future},
     volume = {9},
     number = {2},
     pages = {e2020EF001645},
     year = {2020},
     doi = {10.1029/2020EF001645},
   }

9. North Pacific Zonal Wind Response to Sea Ice Loss in the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project and Its Downstream Implications

   Ronalds, Bryn, Elizabeth A. Barnes, Rosie Eade, and 2 more authors. 2020. Climate Dynamics

   DOI Bib Cite

   @article{ronalds2020wind,
     title = {North Pacific Zonal Wind Response to Sea Ice Loss in the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project and Its Downstream Implications},
     author = {Ronalds, Bryn and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Eade, Rosie and Peings, Yannick and Sigmond, Michael},
     journal = {Climate Dynamics},
     year = {2020},
     doi = {10.1007/s00382-020-05352-w},
   }

10. Physically Interpretable Neural Networks for the Geosciences: Applications to Earth System Variability

    Toms, Benjamin A., Elizabeth A. Barnes, and Imme Ebert-Uphoff. 2020. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems

    DOI Bib Cite

    @article{toms2020physically,
      title = {Physically Interpretable Neural Networks for the Geosciences: Applications to Earth System Variability},
      author = {Toms, Benjamin A. and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Ebert-Uphoff, Imme},
      journal = {Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems},
      year = {2020},
      doi = {10.1029/2019MS002002},
    }

11. Subseasonal Midlatitude Prediction Skill Following Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and Madden-Julian Oscillation Activity

    Mayer, Kirsten J., and Elizabeth A. Barnes. 2020. Weather and Climate Dynamics

    DOI Bib Cite

    @article{mayer2020skill,
      title = {Subseasonal Midlatitude Prediction Skill Following Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and Madden-Julian Oscillation Activity},
      author = {Mayer, Kirsten J. and Barnes, Elizabeth A.},
      journal = {Weather and Climate Dynamics},
      volume = {1},
      number = {1},
      pages = {247--259},
      year = {2020},
      doi = {10.5194/wcd-1-247-2020},
    }

12. The Consistency of MJO Teleconnection Patterns on Interannual Time Scales

    Tseng, Kai-Chih, Eric Maloney, and Elizabeth A. Barnes. 2020. Journal of Climate

    DOI Bib Cite

    @article{tseng2020consistency,
      title = {The Consistency of MJO Teleconnection Patterns on Interannual Time Scales},
      author = {Tseng, Kai-Chih and Maloney, Eric and Barnes, Elizabeth A.},
      journal = {Journal of Climate},
      volume = {33},
      number = {9},
      pages = {3471--3486},
      year = {2020},
      doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0510.1},
    }

13. The Global Teleconnection Signature of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Its Modulation by the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation

    Toms, Benjamin A., Elizabeth A. Barnes, Eric D. Maloney, and 1 more author. 2020. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres

    DOI Bib Cite

    @article{toms2020teleconnection,
      title = {The Global Teleconnection Signature of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Its Modulation by the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation},
      author = {Toms, Benjamin A. and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Maloney, Eric D. and van den Heever, Susan C.},
      journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
      volume = {125},
      number = {7},
      year = {2020},
      doi = {10.1029/2020JD032653},
    }

14. Introduction to Special Collection: Bridging Weather and Climate: Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) Prediction

    Lang, Andrea L., Kathleen Pegion, and Elizabeth A. Barnes. 2020. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres

    DOI Bib Cite

    @article{lang2020introduction,
      title = {Introduction to Special Collection: Bridging Weather and Climate: Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) Prediction},
      author = {Lang, Andrea L. and Pegion, Kathleen and Barnes, Elizabeth A.},
      journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
      volume = {125},
      number = {4},
      year = {2020},
      doi = {10.1029/2019JD031833},
    }

15. Windows of Opportunity for Skillful Forecasts Subseasonal to Seasonal and Beyond

    Mariotti, Annarita, Cory Baggett, Elizabeth A. Barnes, and 5 more authors. 2020. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

    DOI Bib Cite

    @article{mariotti2020windows,
      title = {Windows of Opportunity for Skillful Forecasts Subseasonal to Seasonal and Beyond},
      author = {Mariotti, Annarita and Baggett, Cory and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Becker, Emily and Butler, Amy and Collins, Dan C. and Dirmeyer, Paul A. and others},
      journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
      volume = {101},
      number = {5},
      pages = {E608--E625},
      year = {2020},
      doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0326.1},
    }

16. New Insights on Subseasonal Arctic-Midlatitude Causal Connections from a Regularized Regression Model

    McGraw, Marie C., and Elizabeth A. Barnes. 2020. Journal of Climate

    DOI Bib Cite

    @article{mcgraw2020insights,
      title = {New Insights on Subseasonal Arctic-Midlatitude Causal Connections from a Regularized Regression Model},
      author = {McGraw, Marie C. and Barnes, Elizabeth A.},
      journal = {Journal of Climate},
      volume = {33},
      number = {1},
      pages = {213--228},
      year = {2020},
      doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0142.1},
    }

17. The Importance of Past MJO Activity in Determining the Future State of the Midlatitude Circulation

    Tseng, Kai-Chih, Elizabeth A. Barnes, and Eric Maloney. 2020. Journal of Climate

    DOI Bib Cite

    @article{tseng2020importance,
      title = {The Importance of Past MJO Activity in Determining the Future State of the Midlatitude Circulation},
      author = {Tseng, Kai-Chih and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Maloney, Eric},
      journal = {Journal of Climate},
      year = {2020},
      doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0512.1},
    }

2019

1. Viewing Forced Climate Patterns Through an AI Lens

   Barnes, Elizabeth A., James W. Hurrell, Imme Ebert-Uphoff, and 2 more authors. 2019. Geophysical Research Letters

   DOI Bib Cite

   @article{barnes2019ailens,
     title = {Viewing Forced Climate Patterns Through an AI Lens},
     author = {Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Hurrell, James W. and Ebert-Uphoff, Imme and Anderson, Chuck and Anderson, David},
     journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
     volume = {46},
     number = {22},
     pages = {13389--13398},
     year = {2019},
     doi = {10.1029/2019GL084944},
   }

2. Size of the Atmospheric Blocking Events: Scaling Law and Response to Climate Change

   Nabizadeh, Ebrahim, Pedram Hassanzadeh, Da Yang, and Elizabeth A. Barnes. 2019. Geophysical Research Letters

   DOI Bib Cite

   @article{nabizadeh2019blocking,
     title = {Size of the Atmospheric Blocking Events: Scaling Law and Response to Climate Change},
     author = {Nabizadeh, Ebrahim and Hassanzadeh, Pedram and Yang, Da and Barnes, Elizabeth A.},
     journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
     year = {2019},
     doi = {10.1029/2019GL084863},
   }

3. Thoughtfully Using Artificial Intelligence in Earth Science

   Ebert-Uphoff, Imme, Savini M. Samarasinghe, and Elizabeth A. Barnes. 2019. Eos

   Bib Cite HTML

   @article{ebertuphoff2019thoughtfully,
     title = {Thoughtfully Using Artificial Intelligence in Earth Science},
     author = {Ebert-Uphoff, Imme and Samarasinghe, Savini M. and Barnes, Elizabeth A.},
     journal = {Eos},
     year = {2019},
   }

4. Tropospheric and Stratospheric Causal Pathways Between the MJO and NAO

   Barnes, Elizabeth A., Savini M. Samarasinghe, Imme Ebert-Uphoff, and 1 more author. 2019. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres

   DOI Bib Cite

   @article{barnes2019pathways,
     title = {Tropospheric and Stratospheric Causal Pathways Between the MJO and NAO},
     author = {Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Samarasinghe, Savini M. and Ebert-Uphoff, Imme and Furtado, Jason C.},
     journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
     volume = {124},
     number = {16},
     pages = {9356--9371},
     year = {2019},
     doi = {10.1029/2019JD031024},
   }

5. A Role for Barotropic Eddy-Mean Flow Feedbacks in the Zonal Wind Response to Sea Ice Loss and Arctic Amplification

   Ronalds, Bryn, and Elizabeth A. Barnes. 2019. Journal of Climate

   DOI Bib Cite

   @article{ronalds2019barotropic,
     title = {A Role for Barotropic Eddy-Mean Flow Feedbacks in the Zonal Wind Response to Sea Ice Loss and Arctic Amplification},
     author = {Ronalds, Bryn and Barnes, Elizabeth A.},
     journal = {Journal of Climate},
     volume = {32},
     number = {21},
     pages = {7469--7481},
     year = {2019},
     doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0157.1},
   }

6. The Seasonality and Regionality of MJO Impacts on North American Temperature

   Jenney, Andrea M., Kyle M. Nardi, Elizabeth A. Barnes, and 1 more author. 2019. Geophysical Research Letters

   DOI Bib Cite

   @article{jenney2019seasonality,
     title = {The Seasonality and Regionality of MJO Impacts on North American Temperature},
     author = {Jenney, Andrea M. and Nardi, Kyle M. and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Randall, David A.},
     journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
     volume = {46},
     number = {15},
     pages = {9193--9202},
     year = {2019},
     doi = {10.1029/2019GL083950},
   }

7. Recent Warming of Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers along the West Coast of the United States

   Gonzales, Katerina R., Daniel L. Swain, Kyle M. Nardi, Elizabeth A. Barnes, and Noah S. Diffenbaugh. 2019. Journal of Geophysical Research

   DOI Bib Cite

   @article{gonzales2019warming,
     title = {Recent Warming of Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers along the West Coast of the United States},
     author = {Gonzales, Katerina R. and Swain, Daniel L. and Nardi, Kyle M. and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Diffenbaugh, Noah S.},
     journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research},
     volume = {124},
     number = {13},
     pages = {6810--6826},
     year = {2019},
     doi = {10.1029/2018JD029860},
   }

8. Prediction of Northern Hemisphere Regional Surface Temperatures Using Stratospheric Ozone Information

   Stone, Kane A., Susan Solomon, Douglas E. Kinnison, Cory F. Baggett, and Elizabeth A. Barnes. 2019. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres

   DOI Bib Cite

   @article{stone2019ozone,
     title = {Prediction of Northern Hemisphere Regional Surface Temperatures Using Stratospheric Ozone Information},
     author = {Stone, Kane A. and Solomon, Susan and Kinnison, Douglas E. and Baggett, Cory F. and Barnes, Elizabeth A.},
     journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
     year = {2019},
     doi = {10.1029/2018JD029626},
   }

9. Quantifying Regional Sensitivities to Periodic Events: Application to the MJO

   Jenney, Andrea M., David A. Randall, and Elizabeth A. Barnes. 2019. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres

   DOI Bib Cite

   @article{jenney2019sensitivities,
     title = {Quantifying Regional Sensitivities to Periodic Events: Application to the MJO},
     author = {Jenney, Andrea M. and Randall, David A. and Barnes, Elizabeth A.},
     journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
     volume = {124},
     number = {7},
     pages = {3671--3683},
     year = {2019},
     doi = {10.1029/2018JD029457},
   }

10. The Future of Climate Epidemiology: Opportunities for Advancing Health Research in the Context of Climate Change

    Anderson, G. Brooke, Elizabeth A. Barnes, Michelle L. Bell, and 1 more author. 2019. American Journal of Epidemiology

    DOI Bib Cite

    @article{anderson2019epidemiology,
      title = {The Future of Climate Epidemiology: Opportunities for Advancing Health Research in the Context of Climate Change},
      author = {Anderson, G. Brooke and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Bell, Michelle L. and Dominici, Francesca},
      journal = {American Journal of Epidemiology},
      volume = {188},
      number = {5},
      pages = {866--872},
      year = {2019},
      doi = {10.1093/aje/kwz034},
    }

11. Bridging the Weather-to-Climate Prediction Gap

    Mariotti, Annarita, Elizabeth A. Barnes, Edmund K.-M. Chang, Andrea Lang, Paul A. Dirmeyer, Kathleen Pegion, Dan Barrie, and Cory Baggett. 2019. Eos

    DOI Bib Cite

    @article{mariotti2019bridging,
      title = {Bridging the Weather-to-Climate Prediction Gap},
      author = {Mariotti, Annarita and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Chang, Edmund K.-M. and Lang, Andrea and Dirmeyer, Paul A. and Pegion, Kathleen and Barrie, Dan and Baggett, Cory},
      journal = {Eos},
      year = {2019},
      doi = {10.1029/2019EO115819},
    }

12. The Consistency of MJO Teleconnection Patterns: An Explanation Using Linear Rossby Wave Theory

    Tseng, Kai-Chih, Eric Maloney, and Elizabeth Barnes. 2019. Journal of Climate

    DOI Bib Cite

    @article{tseng2019consistency,
      title = {The Consistency of MJO Teleconnection Patterns: An Explanation Using Linear Rossby Wave Theory},
      author = {Tseng, Kai-Chih and Maloney, Eric and Barnes, Elizabeth},
      journal = {Journal of Climate},
      volume = {32},
      number = {2},
      pages = {531--548},
      year = {2019},
      doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0211.1},
    }

13. ARTMIP-Early Start Comparison of Atmospheric River Detection Tools: How Many Atmospheric Rivers Hit Northern California’s Russian River Watershed?

    Ralph, F. Martin, Anna M. Wilson, Tamara Shulgina, and 5 more authors. 2019. Climate Dynamics

    DOI Bib Cite

    @article{ralph2019artmip,
      title = {ARTMIP-Early Start Comparison of Atmospheric River Detection Tools: How Many Atmospheric Rivers Hit Northern California's Russian River Watershed?},
      author = {Ralph, F. Martin and Wilson, Anna M. and Shulgina, Tamara and Kawzenuk, Brian and Sellars, Scott and Rutz, Jonathan J. and Lamjiri, Maryam A. and others},
      journal = {Climate Dynamics},
      volume = {52},
      number = {7},
      pages = {4973--4994},
      year = {2019},
      doi = {10.1007/s00382-018-4427-5},
    }

2018

1. Skillful Subseasonal Forecasts of Weekly Tornado and Hail Activity Using the Madden-Julian Oscillation

   Baggett, Cory F., Kyle M. Nardi, Samuel J. Childs, Samantha N. Zito, Elizabeth A. Barnes, and Eric D. Maloney. 2018. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres

   DOI Bib Cite

   @article{baggett2018tornado,
     title = {Skillful Subseasonal Forecasts of Weekly Tornado and Hail Activity Using the Madden-Julian Oscillation},
     author = {Baggett, Cory F. and Nardi, Kyle M. and Childs, Samuel J. and Zito, Samantha N. and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Maloney, Eric D.},
     journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
     volume = {123},
     number = {22},
     pages = {12661--12675},
     year = {2018},
     doi = {10.1029/2018JD029059},
   }

2. A Toolbox for Causal Discovery in Climate Science

   Ramsey, J., K. Zhang, M. Glymour, R. Sanchez Romero, B. Huang, I. Ebert-Uphoff, E. Barnes, and C. Glymour. 2018. In Proceedings of the Eighth International Workshop on Climate Informatics (CI 2018)

   non-refereed

   DOI Bib Cite

   @inproceedings{ramsey2018toolbox,
     title = {A Toolbox for Causal Discovery in Climate Science},
     author = {Ramsey, J. and Zhang, K. and Glymour, M. and Sanchez Romero, R. and Huang, B. and Ebert-Uphoff, I. and Barnes, E. and Glymour, C.},
     booktitle = {Proceedings of the Eighth International Workshop on Climate Informatics (CI 2018)},
     year = {2018},
     doi = {10.5065/D6BZ64XQ},
     note = {non-refereed},
   }

3. Causal Discovery in the Presence of Latent Variables for Climate Science

   Samarasinghe, Savini, E. Barnes, and I. Ebert-Uphoff. 2018. In Proceedings of the Eighth International Workshop on Climate Informatics (CI 2018)

   non-refereed

   DOI Bib Cite

   @inproceedings{samarasinghe2018latent,
     title = {Causal Discovery in the Presence of Latent Variables for Climate Science},
     author = {Samarasinghe, Savini and Barnes, E. and Ebert-Uphoff, I.},
     booktitle = {Proceedings of the Eighth International Workshop on Climate Informatics (CI 2018)},
     year = {2018},
     doi = {10.5065/D6BZ64XQ},
     note = {non-refereed},
   }

4. An AI Approach to Determining Time of Emergence of Climate Change

   Barnes, E., C. Anderson, and I. Ebert-Uphoff. 2018. In Proceedings of the Eighth International Workshop on Climate Informatics (CI 2018)

   non-refereed

   DOI Bib Cite

   @inproceedings{barnes2018emergence,
     title = {An AI Approach to Determining Time of Emergence of Climate Change},
     author = {Barnes, E. and Anderson, C. and Ebert-Uphoff, I.},
     booktitle = {Proceedings of the Eighth International Workshop on Climate Informatics (CI 2018)},
     year = {2018},
     doi = {10.5065/D6BZ64XQ},
     note = {non-refereed},
   }

5. A Study of Links between the Arctic and the Midlatitude Jet Stream Using Granger and Pearl Causality

   Samarasinghe, S. M., M. C. McGraw, E. A. Barnes, and 1 more author. 2018. Environmetrics

   DOI Bib Cite

   @article{samarasinghe2018links,
     title = {A Study of Links between the Arctic and the Midlatitude Jet Stream Using Granger and Pearl Causality},
     author = {Samarasinghe, S. M. and McGraw, M. C. and Barnes, E. A. and Ebert-Uphoff, I.},
     journal = {Environmetrics},
     volume = {40},
     pages = {e2540},
     year = {2018},
     doi = {10.1002/env.2540},
   }

6. Environmental Conditions, Ignition Type, and Air Quality Impacts of Wildfires in the Southeastern and Western United States

   Brey, Steven J., Elizabeth A. Barnes, Jeffrey R. Pierce, and 2 more authors. 2018. Earth’s Future

   DOI Bib Cite

   @article{brey2018wildfires,
     title = {Environmental Conditions, Ignition Type, and Air Quality Impacts of Wildfires in the Southeastern and Western United States},
     author = {Brey, Steven J. and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Pierce, Jeffrey R. and Wiedinmyer, Christine and Fischer, Emily V.},
     journal = {Earth's Future},
     volume = {6},
     number = {10},
     pages = {1442--1456},
     year = {2018},
     doi = {10.1029/2018EF000972},
   }

7. Modeled and Observed Multidecadal Variability in the North Atlantic Jet Stream and Its Connection to Sea Surface Temperatures

   Simpson, Isla R., Clara Deser, Karen A. McKinnon, and Elizabeth A. Barnes. 2018. Journal of Climate

   DOI Bib Cite

   @article{simpson2018jet,
     title = {Modeled and Observed Multidecadal Variability in the North Atlantic Jet Stream and Its Connection to Sea Surface Temperatures},
     author = {Simpson, Isla R. and Deser, Clara and McKinnon, Karen A. and Barnes, Elizabeth A.},
     journal = {Journal of Climate},
     volume = {31},
     number = {20},
     pages = {8313--8338},
     year = {2018},
     doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0168.1},
   }

8. Assessment of Numerical Weather Prediction Model Reforecasts of the Occurrence, Intensity, and Location of Atmospheric Rivers along the West Coast of North America

   Nardi, Kyle M., Elizabeth A. Barnes, and F. Martin Ralph. 2018. Monthly Weather Review

   DOI Bib Cite

   @article{nardi2018assessment,
     title = {Assessment of Numerical Weather Prediction Model Reforecasts of the Occurrence, Intensity, and Location of Atmospheric Rivers along the West Coast of North America},
     author = {Nardi, Kyle M. and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Ralph, F. Martin},
     journal = {Monthly Weather Review},
     volume = {146},
     number = {10},
     pages = {3343--3362},
     year = {2018},
     doi = {10.1175/MWR-D-18-0060.1},
   }

9. Corrigendum: A Barotropic Mechanism for the Response of Jet Stream Variability to Arctic Amplification and Sea Ice Loss

   Ronalds, Bryn, Elizabeth Barnes, and Pedram Hassanzadeh. 2018. Journal of Climate

   DOI Bib Cite

   @article{ronalds2018corrigendum,
     title = {Corrigendum: A Barotropic Mechanism for the Response of Jet Stream Variability to Arctic Amplification and Sea Ice Loss},
     author = {Ronalds, Bryn and Barnes, Elizabeth and Hassanzadeh, Pedram},
     journal = {Journal of Climate},
     volume = {31},
     number = {23},
     pages = {9787--9789},
     year = {2018},
     doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0624.1},
   }

10. A Barotropic Mechanism for the Response of Jet Stream Variability to Arctic Amplification and Sea Ice Loss

    Ronalds, Bryn, Elizabeth Barnes, and Pedram Hassanzadeh. 2018. Journal of Climate

    DOI Bib Cite

    @article{ronalds2018barotropic,
      title = {A Barotropic Mechanism for the Response of Jet Stream Variability to Arctic Amplification and Sea Ice Loss},
      author = {Ronalds, Bryn and Barnes, Elizabeth and Hassanzadeh, Pedram},
      journal = {Journal of Climate},
      volume = {31},
      number = {17},
      pages = {7069--7085},
      year = {2018},
      doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0778.1},
    }

11. Primary Modes of Global Drop Size Distributions

    Dolan, B., B. Fuchs, S. A. Rutledge, E. A. Barnes, and E. J. Thompson. 2018. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences

    DOI Bib Cite

    @article{dolan2018dropsize,
      title = {Primary Modes of Global Drop Size Distributions},
      author = {Dolan, B. and Fuchs, B. and Rutledge, S. A. and Barnes, E. A. and Thompson, E. J.},
      journal = {Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences},
      volume = {75},
      number = {5},
      pages = {1453--1476},
      year = {2018},
      doi = {10.1175/JAS-D-17-0242.1},
    }

12. Quantifying Isentropic Mixing Linked to Rossby Wave Breaking in a Modified Lagrangian Coordinate

    Liu, Chengji, and Elizabeth A. Barnes. 2018. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences

    DOI Bib Cite

    @article{liu2018mixing,
      title = {Quantifying Isentropic Mixing Linked to Rossby Wave Breaking in a Modified Lagrangian Coordinate},
      author = {Liu, Chengji and Barnes, Elizabeth A.},
      journal = {Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences},
      volume = {75},
      number = {3},
      pages = {927--942},
      year = {2018},
      doi = {10.1175/JAS-D-17-0204.1},
    }

13. Memory Matters: A Case for Granger Causality in Climate Variability Studies

    McGraw, Marie C., and Elizabeth A. Barnes. 2018. Journal of Climate

    DOI Bib Cite

    @article{mcgraw2018memory,
      title = {Memory Matters: A Case for Granger Causality in Climate Variability Studies},
      author = {McGraw, Marie C. and Barnes, Elizabeth A.},
      journal = {Journal of Climate},
      year = {2018},
      doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0334.1},
    }

14. Skillful Empirical Subseasonal Prediction of Landfalling Atmospheric River Activity Using the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation

    Mundhenk, Bryan D., Elizabeth A. Barnes, Eric D. Maloney, and Cory F. Baggett. 2018. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science

    DOI Bib Cite

    @article{mundhenk2018prediction,
      title = {Skillful Empirical Subseasonal Prediction of Landfalling Atmospheric River Activity Using the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation},
      author = {Mundhenk, Bryan D. and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Maloney, Eric D. and Baggett, Cory F.},
      journal = {npj Climate and Atmospheric Science},
      volume = {1},
      number = {1},
      pages = {7},
      year = {2018},
      doi = {10.1038/s41612-017-0008-2},
    }

15. Daily to Decadal Modulation of Jet Variability

    Woollings, Tim, Elizabeth Barnes, Brian Hoskins, and 5 more authors. 2018. Journal of Climate

    DOI Bib Cite

    @article{woollings2018jet,
      title = {Daily to Decadal Modulation of Jet Variability},
      author = {Woollings, Tim and Barnes, Elizabeth and Hoskins, Brian and Kwon, Young-Oh and Lee, Robert W. and Li, Camille and Madonna, Erica and others},
      journal = {Journal of Climate},
      volume = {31},
      number = {4},
      pages = {1297--1314},
      year = {2018},
      doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0286.1},
    }

16. Prediction of the Midlatitude Response to Strong Madden-Julian Oscillation Events on S2S Time Scales

    Tseng, Kai-Chih, Elizabeth A. Barnes, and Eric D. Maloney. 2018. Geophysical Research Letters

    DOI Bib Cite

    @article{tseng2018prediction,
      title = {Prediction of the Midlatitude Response to Strong Madden-Julian Oscillation Events on S2S Time Scales},
      author = {Tseng, Kai-Chih and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Maloney, Eric D.},
      journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
      volume = {45},
      number = {1},
      year = {2018},
      doi = {10.1002/2017GL075734},
    }

17. Synoptic Formation of Double Tropopauses

    Liu, Chengji, and Elizabeth Barnes. 2018. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres

    DOI Bib Cite

    @article{liu2018tropopauses,
      title = {Synoptic Formation of Double Tropopauses},
      author = {Liu, Chengji and Barnes, Elizabeth},
      journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
      year = {2018},
      doi = {10.1002/2017JD027941},
    }

2017

1. Seasonal Sensitivity of the Northern Hemisphere Jet Streams to Arctic Temperatures on Subseasonal Time Scales

   Barnes, Elizabeth A., and Isla R. Simpson. 2017. Journal of Climate

   DOI Bib Cite

   @article{barnes2017jet,
     title = {Seasonal Sensitivity of the Northern Hemisphere Jet Streams to Arctic Temperatures on Subseasonal Time Scales},
     author = {Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Simpson, Isla R.},
     journal = {Journal of Climate},
     volume = {30},
     number = {24},
     pages = {10117--10137},
     year = {2017},
     doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0299.1},
   }

2. A Census of Atmospheric Variability From Seconds to Decades

   Williams, Paul D., M. Joan Alexander, Elizabeth A. Barnes, and 5 more authors. 2017. Geophysical Research Letters

   DOI Bib Cite

   @article{williams2017census,
     title = {A Census of Atmospheric Variability From Seconds to Decades},
     author = {Williams, Paul D. and Alexander, M. Joan and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Butler, Amy H. and Davies, Huw C. and Garfinkel, Chaim I. and Kushnir, Yochanan and others},
     journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
     volume = {44},
     number = {21},
     year = {2017},
     doi = {10.1002/2017GL075483},
   }

3. Quantifying the Lead Time Required for a Linear Trend to Emerge from Natural Climate Variability

   Li, Jingyuan, David W. J. Thompson, Elizabeth A. Barnes, and 1 more author. 2017. Journal of Climate

   DOI Bib Cite

   @article{li2017leadtime,
     title = {Quantifying the Lead Time Required for a Linear Trend to Emerge from Natural Climate Variability},
     author = {Li, Jingyuan and Thompson, David W. J. and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Solomon, Susan},
     journal = {Journal of Climate},
     volume = {30},
     number = {24},
     pages = {10179--10191},
     year = {2017},
     doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0280.1},
   }

4. A Study of Causal Links Between the Arctic and the Midlatitude Jet-Streams

   Samarasinghe, Savini, Marie Mc Graw, Elizabeth A. Barnes, and 1 more author. 2017. In 7th International Workshop on Climate Informatics

   non-refereed

   DOI Bib Cite

   @inproceedings{samarasinghe2017causal,
     title = {A Study of Causal Links Between the Arctic and the Midlatitude Jet-Streams},
     author = {Samarasinghe, Savini and Mc Graw, Marie and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Ebert-Uphoff, Imme},
     booktitle = {7th International Workshop on Climate Informatics},
     year = {2017},
     doi = {10.5065/D6222SH7},
     note = {non-refereed},
   }

5. Advancing Atmospheric River Forecasts into Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Time Scales

   Baggett, Cory F., Elizabeth A. Barnes, Eric D. Maloney, and Bryan D. Mundhenk. 2017. Geophysical Research Letters

   DOI Bib Cite

   @article{baggett2017rivers,
     title = {Advancing Atmospheric River Forecasts into Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Time Scales},
     author = {Baggett, Cory F. and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Maloney, Eric D. and Mundhenk, Bryan D.},
     journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
     volume = {44},
     number = {14},
     year = {2017},
     doi = {10.1002/2017GL074434},
   }

6. Working with Daily Climate Model Output Data in R and the Futureheatwaves Package

   Anderson, G. Brooke, Colin Eason, and Elizabeth A. Barnes. 2017. The R Journal

   DOI Bib Cite

   @article{anderson2017futureheatwaves,
     title = {Working with Daily Climate Model Output Data in R and the Futureheatwaves Package},
     author = {Anderson, G. Brooke and Eason, Colin and Barnes, Elizabeth A.},
     journal = {The R Journal},
     volume = {9},
     number = {1},
     year = {2017},
     doi = {10.32614/RJ-2017-032},
   }

7. Quantifying the Role of Land-atmosphere Feedbacks in Mediating near-Surface Temperature Persistence

   Kolstad, E. W., E. A. Barnes, and S. P. Sobolowski. 2017. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society

   DOI Bib Cite

   @article{kolstad2017land,
     title = {Quantifying the Role of Land-atmosphere Feedbacks in Mediating near-Surface Temperature Persistence},
     author = {Kolstad, E. W. and Barnes, E. A. and Sobolowski, S. P.},
     journal = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society},
     volume = {143},
     number = {704},
     pages = {1620--1631},
     year = {2017},
     doi = {10.1002/qj.3033},
   }

2016

1. Intraseasonal Periodicity in the Southern Hemisphere Circulation on Regional Spatial Scales

   Thompson, David W. J., Brian R. Crow, and Elizabeth A. Barnes. 2016. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences

   DOI Bib Cite

   @article{thompson2016periodicity,
     title = {Intraseasonal Periodicity in the Southern Hemisphere Circulation on Regional Spatial Scales},
     author = {Thompson, David W. J. and Crow, Brian R. and Barnes, Elizabeth A.},
     journal = {Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences},
     volume = {74},
     number = {3},
     pages = {865--877},
     year = {2016},
     doi = {10.1175/JAS-D-16-0094.1},
   }

2. Modulation of Atmospheric Rivers near Alaska and the U.S. West Coast by Northeast Pacific Height Anomalies

   Mundhenk, Bryan D., Elizabeth A. Barnes, Eric D. Maloney, and Kyle M. Nardi. 2016. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres

   DOI Bib Cite

   @article{mundhenk2016modulation,
     title = {Modulation of Atmospheric Rivers near Alaska and the U.S. West Coast by Northeast Pacific Height Anomalies},
     author = {Mundhenk, Bryan D. and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Maloney, Eric D. and Nardi, Kyle M.},
     journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
     volume = {121},
     number = {21},
     pages = {12751--12765},
     year = {2016},
     doi = {10.1002/2016JD025350},
   }

3. Storm Track Processes and the Opposing Influences of Climate Change

   Shaw, T. A., M. Baldwin, E. A. Barnes, and 5 more authors. 2016. Nature Geoscience

   DOI Bib Cite

   @article{shaw2016storm,
     title = {Storm Track Processes and the Opposing Influences of Climate Change},
     author = {Shaw, T. A. and Baldwin, M. and Barnes, E. A. and Caballero, R. and Garfinkel, C. I. and Hwang, Y.-T. and Li, C. and others},
     journal = {Nature Geoscience},
     volume = {9},
     pages = {656},
     year = {2016},
     doi = {10.1038/ngeo2783},
   }

4. Isentropic Transport and the Seasonal Cycle Amplitude of CO2

   Barnes, Elizabeth A., Nicholas Parazoo, Clara Orbe, and 1 more author. 2016. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres

   DOI Bib Cite

   @article{barnes2016isentropic,
     title = {Isentropic Transport and the Seasonal Cycle Amplitude of CO2},
     author = {Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Parazoo, Nicholas and Orbe, Clara and Denning, A. Scott},
     journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
     volume = {121},
     number = {13},
     year = {2016},
     doi = {10.1002/2016JD025109},
   }

5. Reconciling the Observed and Modeled Southern Hemisphere Circulation Response to Volcanic Eruptions

   McGraw, Marie C., Elizabeth A. Barnes, and Clara Deser. 2016. Geophysical Research Letters

   DOI Bib Cite

   @article{mcgraw2016volcanic,
     title = {Reconciling the Observed and Modeled Southern Hemisphere Circulation Response to Volcanic Eruptions},
     author = {McGraw, Marie C. and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Deser, Clara},
     journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
     volume = {43},
     number = {13},
     year = {2016},
     doi = {10.1002/2016GL069835},
   }

6. Seasonal Sensitivity of the Eddy-Driven Jet to Tropospheric Heating in an Idealized AGCM

   McGraw, Marie C., and Elizabeth A. Barnes. 2016. Journal of Climate

   DOI Bib Cite

   @article{mcgraw2016jet,
     title = {Seasonal Sensitivity of the Eddy-Driven Jet to Tropospheric Heating in an Idealized AGCM},
     author = {McGraw, Marie C. and Barnes, Elizabeth A.},
     journal = {Journal of Climate},
     volume = {29},
     number = {14},
     pages = {5223--5240},
     year = {2016},
     doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0723.1},
   }

7. All-Season Climatology and Variability of Atmospheric River Frequencies over the North Pacific

   Mundhenk, Bryan D., Elizabeth A. Barnes, and Eric D. Maloney. 2016. Journal of Climate

   DOI Bib Cite

   @article{mundhenk2016climatology,
     title = {All-Season Climatology and Variability of Atmospheric River Frequencies over the North Pacific},
     author = {Mundhenk, Bryan D. and Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Maloney, Eric D.},
     journal = {Journal of Climate},
     volume = {29},
     number = {13},
     pages = {4885--4903},
     year = {2016},
     doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0655.1},
   }

8. Robust Wind and Precipitation Responses to the Mount Pinatubo Eruption, as Simulated in the CMIP5 Models

   Barnes, Elizabeth A., Susan Solomon, and Lorenzo M. Polvani. 2016. Journal of Climate

   DOI Bib Cite

   @article{barnes2016pinatubo,
     title = {Robust Wind and Precipitation Responses to the Mount Pinatubo Eruption, as Simulated in the CMIP5 Models},
     author = {Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Solomon, Susan and Polvani, Lorenzo M.},
     journal = {Journal of Climate},
     volume = {29},
     number = {13},
     pages = {4763--4778},
     year = {2016},
     doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0658.1},
   }

9. The Influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on Northern Hemisphere Winter Blocking

   Henderson, Stephanie A., Eric D. Maloney, and Elizabeth A. Barnes. 2016. Journal of Climate

   DOI Bib Cite

   @article{henderson2016blocking,
     title = {The Influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on Northern Hemisphere Winter Blocking},
     author = {Henderson, Stephanie A. and Maloney, Eric D. and Barnes, Elizabeth A.},
     journal = {Journal of Climate},
     volume = {29},
     number = {12},
     pages = {4597--4616},
     year = {2016},
     doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0502.1},
   }

10. Detection of Trends in Surface Ozone in the Presence of Climate Variability

    Barnes, Elizabeth A., Arlene M. Fiore, and Larry W. Horowitz. 2016. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres

    DOI Bib Cite

    @article{barnes2016ozone,
      title = {Detection of Trends in Surface Ozone in the Presence of Climate Variability},
      author = {Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Fiore, Arlene M. and Horowitz, Larry W.},
      journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
      volume = {121},
      number = {10},
      year = {2016},
      doi = {10.1002/2015JD024397},
    }